It all comes down to this.
It’s going to be a very dramatic day at the 2026 World Baseball Classic. A day filled with tie-breakers and needlessly complex math equations. However, things are pretty cut and dry in Pool A. Puerto Rico has already punched its ticket to the knockout round, and it’ll be joined by either Canada or Cuba — whichever country walks off the field with a victory on Wednesday afternoon.
Cuba has never failed to get out of pool play at the WBC. Meanwhile, Canada has never reached the knockout round, despite participating in every single tournament since 2006.
Will these trends continue? Let’s preview this 3:00 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Canada vs. Cuba prediction, preview
You know that debate that happens every year in early December? The one where a panel of ESPN mouthpieces debate whether or not the best college football team in the nation could beat the worst NFL team? Well, this pitching matchup is probably the closest thing we’ll ever see to that experiment taking place in real life.
Taking the mound for Canada will be Cal Quantrill, a former first-round pick and current seven-year MLB veteran. Though Quantrill had a couple of very promising seasons with Cleveland in 2021 and 2022, things have gone downhill for the Canadian RHP since the beginning of 2023. It’s a three-year span where Quantrill owns a 5.39 ERA and a 5.60 xERA — the highest mark of any of the 106 pitchers with at least 300 innings thrown in that same stretch of time. Now, throwing 365.2 innings at the MLB level is still an accomplishment, even if they’re poor innings. It’s a testament to Quantrill’s raw talent that he keeps getting signed to a major league roster over and over again. That said, he’s probably the worst “everyday” starter in the No. 1 professional baseball league on the planet.
The No. 2 professional baseball league? The NPB in Japan. That’s where you could have watched Livan Moinelo practice his craft for almost the past decade with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. It’s also where you could have watched the southpaw post a 1.46 ERA over 167.0 innings in 2025, becoming the first Cuban-born player to win the league’s MVP award. Moinelo is, without question, the best everyday starter in the NPB at the moment. Look at that contrast! Moinelo’s handedness looms very large in this specific matchup, as well, as Canada is chalked full of left-handed bats, such as Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor and Owen Caissie.
So, knowing this pitching matchup, why is Canada a -160 moneyline favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook? Well, aside from the mental gymnastics of deciding whether the MLB’s worst pitcher is more valuable than the NPB’s best pitcher, there’s two things to think about. First and foremost, with the 65-pitch limit in pool play of the WBC, starters can only have so much impact on a game. Moinelo looked amazing in his first start of the tournament against Panama, yet that only translated into 11 outs. Secondly, there’s simply a pretty wide talent disparity between these two projected lineups.
Politics obviously limit the amount of MLB participation that Cuba gets at the World Baseball Classic, which means Yoan Moncada is the only active player on a big league roster — though there are a handful of younger Cuban assets in affiliated ball in the minors. As such, Cuba is batting a paltry .170 across its first three contests, with only Brazil and the Czech Republic putting up a worse figure among the 20 teams at this year’s WBC. To be fair, Canada isn’t doing much better from a run production standpoint the past week, yet this is a lineup filled with men who will be on 26-man Major League Baseball rosters at the end of March. The Canadians have waaaaay more upside with the bats.
Canada vs. Cuba pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
Cuba had an off day on Tuesday, while Canada only used its two lowest-leverage bullpen arms to cover six innings against Puerto Rico. We’re going to get the best pitching that these two clubs have to offer in what is essentially an elimination game. It also doesn’t hurt matters that Hiram Bithorn Stadium has played as a pitcher’s park throughout Pool A’s round robin. Runs have been hard to come by in San Juan.
