In the Big 12, elite teams seem to grow on trees. Five conference members made an appearance on this week’s AP Poll. However, those elite squads need someone to beat up on. That’s been the case for Utah (10-21, 2-16), the 16th-seeded team in the Big 12 Tournament. The Utes will hope to turn their luck around against #9 Cincinnati (17-14, 9-9). For the Bearcats, this week presents a much-needed opportunity to bolster their March Madness resume.
Cincinnati enters as 12.5-point favorites (-115) over Utah. The total is set at 137.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Utes and Bearcats.
Utah vs. Cincinnati prediction, preview
To call this a tough season in Salt Lake City would be an understatement. Granted, it’s not as if the Utes came into this year with massive expectations. Still, it’s impossible to get excited about a whopping two wins in conference play. Following a respectable 16-win campaign in 2024-25, this group has declined across the board. The biggest issue for this squad is giving up easy buckets. A 111.3 adjusted defensive efficiency places Utah at 213th on KenPom. Depth is another massive problem for head coach Alex Jansen. Just five players on this roster are averaging more than 2.9 points per game.
If there’s any upside for UU, it’s Terrence Brown. The guard is averaging 19.8 points per game, fourth-best among all Big 12 players. He’s joined in the back court by senior Don McHenry (17.3 PPG). Together, the two have combined for nearly half of Utah’s team points per game total (74.6 PPG). Down low, Keanu Dawes has offered up solid production, as well (12.4 PPG, 8.7 REB). After that, it’s slim pickings. As a unit, this team ranks 198th in college basketball with a 109.1 offensive rating. The Utes have gone 1-13 against Quad 1 opponents. Their lone win was a five-point victory against West Virginia.
A top-heavy Utah offense will have its work cut out this afternoon in Kansas City. The Bearcats are one of college basketball’s stingiest when it comes to limiting points. Their 94.7 adjusted defensive efficiency is 12th-best on KenPom. Scoring down low can be a nightmare for opponents. Twin towers Baba Miller (6’11”) and Moustapha Thiam (7’2″) protect the paint well. Together, the pair is averaging 16.8 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game. In comparison, the Utes’ biggest players are Dawes and Josh Hayes at 6’9″.
It’s not just the front court that Utah needs to worry about tonight. The guard tandem of Day Day Thomas (11.6 PPG) and Jizzle James (11.4 PPG) can carry this offense. Unlike UU, Cincy also possesses a decent bench. Eight different names on this roster have accounted for at least 5.8 points per game. As a unit, the Bearcats have only earned three Quad 1 victories. However, those have come against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in #7 Iowa State, #14 Kansas and BYU. Cincinnati comes into this contest having won six of its last eight matchups.
Utah vs. Cincinnati pick, best bet
The last time these two met, it was a surprisingly competitive four-point game. Still, nothing about Utah’s paltry resume suggests a repeat performance. An inability to box out could haunt the Utes, especially against today’s opponents. In comparison, the Bearcats come into Tuesday with momentum and real, tangible stakes. Expect a fired-up Cincinnati crew to kick off this week’s tournament with a bang.
