After releasing Tua Tagovailoa Monday morning, the Dolphins have already found their new starting quarterback. Miami is signing Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million deal with $45 million guaranteed, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Playing behind Jordan Love with the Packers last season, Willis was very efficient, averaging 12.1 yards per pass, which ranked first in the NFL among all the quarterbacks who dropped back at least 20 times. Willis threw for three touchdowns and no picks on his 35 pass attempts, and he finished first among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. In addition to his elite passing, Willis averaged 5.6 YPC and he rushed for two touchdowns on just 22 carries. Willis notably rushed the ball on 22% of his snaps.
Many viewed Willis as the top free agent quarterback on the market and he now will be a starting quarterback for the first time in his career in Miami. Given his great dual threat capability, Willis will be a compelling pick in fantasy football drafts this summer. Willis only made one start last season, but in that game, he went off for 32.5 FPTS vs. the Ravens. While a limited sample of only 47 dropbacks, Willis easily led all quarterbacks in FPTS per dropback last season at 1.1. For some perspective, Josh Allen ranked third at 0.7.
Obviously, with a much larger sample as a starter this season, Willis’ efficiency will decline from the elite levels we saw last season, but nonetheless, him finishing as a top-eight quarterback for fantasy football next season is very possible.
While Willis has a ton of appeal for fantasy next season, the oddsmakers don’t believe he moves the needle much for the Dolphins’ chances of winning, as they carry the second-worst odds to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings Sportsbook at +20000.
