Horizon League foes are set to meet tonight, with each school’s season hanging in the balance. Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14, 11-9) enjoyed its fifth-straight season above .500. However, the Mastodons will need to win out in order to reach the NCAA Tournament. Ditto for Green Bay (17-14, 12-8), now in its second campaign under head coach Doug Gottlieb. The Phoenix haven’t gone dancing since 2016.
Green Bay enters Tuesday as 4.5-point favorites (-105) over Purdue Fort Wayne. The total is set at 144.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Mastodons and Phoenix.
Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Green Bay prediction, preview
On paper, there isn’t much that Purdue Fort Wayne does exceptionally well. Per KenPom, the team ranks 235th and 263rd in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. PFW has been especially vulnerable when it comes to guarding the perimeter. Opponents are knocking down 38.1% of their three-point attempts vs. the Mastodons. That places them 355th out of 365 Division I schools. As a unit, they own the Horizon League’s fifth-worst defensive rating at 109.8.
This is one of the nation’s most top-heavy squads. Corey Hadnot is the headliner, pacing all Horizon players with 20.6 points per game. He’s joined by fellow upperclassmen DeAndre Craig (14.1 PPG) and Mikale Stevenson (14.1 PPG). After that, this lineup gets thin in a hurry. Just two other Mastodons, Maximus Nelson and Darius Duffy, are averaging more than 3.5 points per game.
As previously mentioned, Purdue Fort Wayne struggles to defend against the three ball. That’s not ideal against most squads, including the Phoenix. Green Bay has drained 36.9% of its shots from beyond the arc, 34th-best in all of college basketball. Caden Wilkins, Preston Ruedinger and Marcus Hall are all shooting better than 40% from three-point range. However, those three are the only ones averaging more than 1.0 treys per game.
Fortunately for Green Bay, C.J. O’Hara gives the team a more aggressive, attacking offensive player. The guard leads the way with 14.9 points per game despite a lack of three-point shooting. Still, depth is a concern for the Phoenix as well. Only five players on this roster are putting up more than 4.0 points per game. Granted, that’s due in part to a glacial offense. GB ranks 355th in the nation with a 62.9 adjusted tempo. If Purdue Fort Wayne is going to force an upset, they’ll likely need to push the pace.
Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Green Bay pick, best bet
It’s fair to call the Phoenix fortunate this season, ranking 51st on KenPom with a +0.59 luck rating. However, that’s nothing compared to their opponents on Tuesday. Purdue Fort Wayne sits at sixth in that category (+.129). Green Bay has won both meetings between these schools by a combined 35 points. At home, it’s difficult to envision a different result this evening.
