March has finally arrived and teams across the NCAA are winding down their regular-season schedules with the last couple of games over the coming days. With conference tournaments around the corner, it just means more at this stage of the game. On Tuesday, the No. 14 Kansas Jayhawks play their second game of the last four days in Arizona, this time against the AZ State Sun Devils. With a shot to move up in the Big 12 standings and just one game remaining after this one, there’s plenty on the line for the visitors even if the home side doesn’t have as much to play for.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Kansas vs. Arizona State on Tuesday, March 3.
Kansas vs. Arizona State prediction, preview
Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks dropped in the Big 12 standings with a loss to Arizona over the weekend and now sit fifth overall at 11-5 in conference play and 21-8 overall. They’ve gone 7-7 against Quad 1 sides and and a strong 8-1 against Quad 2s, making their way to 16th in the KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of +26.31.
Kansas has faced the toughest schedule of any Division I team this season in terms of NETRTG, so its success shouldn’t be understated. The Jayhawks allow only 68.7 PPG to opponents and have the ninth-best DRTG in the sport, with opponents garnering the fifth-lowest eFG% against them. They also average 38.1 rebounds, 40th in the country, with the fourth-most blocks per game at 6.0. The offense is far from poor as well with 76.1 PPG and the 51st-ranked ORTG, though there are some issues. Shooting efficiency isn’t a particular strong suit at 46.4% from the field and 35.5% from three (though those are respectable marks) and the Jayhawks generate onlu14.4 assists with a 1.370 AST/TO ratio.
Peterson leads the roster with 19.7 points and scored 24 in his most recent appearance, shooting 40.3% from three this season overall. Guard Tre White posts 14.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, shooting 42.5% from three himself. Flory Bidunga averages 13.8 points and a team-best 9.0 rebounds, and Melvin Council Jr. pitches in 13.5 points with 4.7 boards and a team-high 5.0 dimes.
Arizona State Sun Devils
There are far fewer positives to report about Arizona State from the season. The Sun Devils are 15-14 overall and only 6-10 in conference play, so any hope of a tournament run all but vanished long ago. They’re just 3-9 against Quad 1 teams and notably 4-3 against Quad 2 rosters. Per the KenPom rankings, AZ State comes in at 66th overall with a +12.45 NETRTG.
The Sun Devils average a very respectable 77.9 PPG, shooting 45.0% overall and 34.3% from beyond the arc. However, they post just 14.1 assists with a 1.269 AST/TO ratio and aren’t particularly strong on the glass with 33.1 boards per game. Beyond that, they concede 78.2 PPG defensively and struggle with sending opponents to the free-throw line, giving up an average of 20.7 attempts per contest. However, they do rack up 4.7 blocks a night, good for 32nd in D1.
Maurice Odum carries the load for Arizona State with 17.1 points and 5.9 assists, both good for team-high marks. Massamba Diop brings 13.8 points and a team-best 5.9 rebounds, and Anthony Johnson scores 13.9 points a night as well. Santiago Trouet also plays a key role in the rotation.
Kansas vs. Arizona State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Kansas as a 5.5-point favorite on the road with -245 odds on the Moneyline. Arizona State is a +200 ML underdog with the game total set at 151.5 combined points.
It’s admittedly a little surprising to see this spread set at only 5.5 points. Kansas has a far superior roster and is better in nearly every aspect of the game. With the advantage on the glass, a slight edge in shooting efficiency and a much better defense, it’s tough to see this being decided by just five points or fewer. The only hope for the Sun Devils is that they can speed the Jayhawks up a little bit and compete in a shootout, but given how Kansas has handled business against teams much better than this AZ State squad, I feel quite confident projecting a win by greater than that 5.5 line.
In short, the Jayhawks should roll in this one and comfortably cover, which makes an alt line quite tempting as well.
