The college basketball season is winding down with conference tournaments right around the corner. As part of the Sunday slate of games, the Memphis Tigers will take on the East Carolina Pirates in an American Conference battle. Neither of these teams has gotten off to the start to the year they desired, and each will look to close the season on a high note and face each other in doing so.
Looking at the odds, Memphis enters as a 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with -225 odds of winning outright. East Carolina holds +185 odds on the Moneyline, with the game total set at O/U 150.5 points.
Memphis vs. East Carolina prediction, preview
The Tigers hold a 12-16 record and are 7-8 in conference play. They enter this matchup looking to snap a five-game losing streak, and have lost eight of their last 11 games. On the season, the Tigers are 13-15 against the spread, with the game total 14-14 to the over/under.
Dug McDaniel headlines the scoring for Memphis, posting averages of 13.4 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and a conference-leading 2.1 steals. Sincere Parker is the lone other player to score in double figures with 12.0 points and 3.6 assists per game. Curtis Givens III, Julius Thedford, Thierno Sylla, and Quante Berry each also play key roles in the rotation.
As a team, Memphis is scoring 74.5 points per game, which ranks 224th of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They also rank 298th in offensive rating, 286th in team field goal percentage, and 298th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 74.9 points per game against the Tigers, which ranks 217th in the country. Memphis also ranks 137th in defensive rating, 47th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
East Carolina holds a 10-18 record and has gone 5-10 in conference play. The Pirates are coming off an 82-81 victory over UTSA in the previous game, but have lost two of their last three and 11 of their last 16 games. They’ve gone 14-13 against the spread in qualifying games, and the game total has gone over in 14 of these 27 games.
Jordan Riley headlines the production, leading the American Conference with 37.8 minutes and 23.7 points per game, along with 5.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists. Giovanni Emejuru adds 13.3 points and 9.4 rebounds of his own, while Demitri Gardner is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.1 points per game and shooting a team-best 41.7% on three-pointers. Corey Caulker, Tybo Bailey, Isaiah Mbeng, and Reid Cason also play key roles in the rotation.
ECU is scoring 70.9 points per game, which ranks 295th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They also rank 325th in offensive rating, 330th in field goal percentage, and 363rd in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 76.8 points per game against the Pirates, which ranks 259th in the country. East Carolina also ranks 263rd in defensive rating, 220th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 245th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Memphis vs. East Carolina pick, best bet
Both of these teams have some significant flaws and have failed to live up to their expectations this season. However, the level of panic should be further heightened surrounding this East Carolina team. The Pirates lean on Riley to headline the offensive attack.
The 6-foot-4 guard is responsible for 32.3% of the team’s total scoring and 31.8% of the field goal attempts on the season. But if Riley does not have it going, there is no pathway to this team scoring at a competitive rate. East Carolina is just 3-8 when he scores 21 or fewer points this season.
Memphis has a dynamic backcourt led by McDaniel and Parker. It also ranks 26th in the country in steals, 57th in turnovers forced, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage. East Carolina can be prone to turnovers and struggle from the perimeter even under the best of circumstances, ranking 335th in three-point attempts and 363rd in three-point percentage.
Memphis will be eager to snap its losing streak, and this is a matchup where it will have a chance to achieve this. The Tigers have won each of the last four games against the Pirates. East Carolina is 5-9 against the spread in home games this season and failed to cover in back-to-back games.
The bar of expectations is a bit higher for Memphis, and count on the team to capitalize on this chance to snap the losing streak. Expect the Tigers to have success creating turnovers, generating offensive rebounds, and creating easy baskets. Look for Memphis to push the scoring to a level that East Carolina cannot match and cover the 5.5-point spread today.
