Few conferences in college basketball history can match the collective dominance of the Big 12. Among the midwest heavyweights worth watching, #4 Iowa State (24-4. 11-4) is near the top. The Cyclones, despite a few setbacks, have the makings of a national title contender. That was the case for #16 Texas Tech (21-7, 11-4) as well, up until a season-ending injury for leading scorer JT Toppin. Regardless, the Red Raiders still possess enough talent to make a deep March Madness run.
Iowa State enters Saturday as 10.5-point favorites (-110) over Texas Tech. The total is set at 144.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Red Raiders and Cyclones.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
There’s no sugarcoating the loss of Toppin, one of the nation’s premier offensive talents. Through 25 games this season, the forward posted 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds while shooting 55% from the field. His absence makes it difficult to back an otherwise dangerous Texas Tech squad. With that being said. there’s enough collective talent here to stay competitive against almost anyone. Per KenPom, the Red Raiders rank 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (125.6). That’s due in part to their 39.2% three-point percentage, seventh-best in the nation.
Expect to see plenty of shots from Christian Anderson, now the de facto number one option in Lubbock. This season, the guard has recorded 19.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game to go with 49/44/79 shooting splits. In the front court, Donovan Atwell and LeJuan Watts have combined for 25.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. The downside for this group is their depth. Without Toppin, head coach Grant McCasland has just four players at his disposal averaging more than 3.7 points per game. That’s not ideal, especially against some of the nation’s better defensive units.
In that regard, Iowa State certainly has the makings of a matchup nightmare. ISU prides itself on playing hard-nosed, physical defense. As a result, the team is allowing a minuscule 64.9 points per game to its opponents. That’s the third-best mark among all 16 Big 12 schools this season. Per KenPom, the Cyclones rank seventh in college basketball with a 92.6 adjusted defensive efficiency. This squad plays at a slowed-down pace on offense, forcing opponents to make the most of their limited possessions. That’s worked en route to victories over #4 Houston and #14 Kansas. On the flip side, they’ve suffered tough losses against the likes of TCU and Cincinnati.
As always, the biggest key to success for the Cyclones is scoring enough points. This is a top-heavy offense, carried by three upperclassmen. Leading the way is forward Milan Momcilovic, who paces the team with 17.4 points per game. ISU’s best player might be Joshua Jefferson. The senior, in addition to 16.6 points per game, has chipped in with 7.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists. Guard Tamin Lipsey (13.0 PPG, 4.3 REB, 5.2 AST) rounds out one of college basketball’s most lethal trios. There’s slightly more depth here on offense compared to Tech. Still, neither of these schools should be expecting many buckets off the bench.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State pick, best bet
It’s impossible to ignore what Toppin’s injury means for the Red Raiders. However, the presence of Anderson should give TTU fans some reassurance. In comparison, Iowa State hasn’t been a model of consistency lately. The Cyclones have gone 3-2 over their last five games. Granted, they’ve gone undefeated at Ames’ Hilton Coliseum. I’d expect that to continue this evening, but it won’t come easy. Texas Tech, even at less than 100%, has what it takes to keep this within single digits.
