The New Mexico Lobos host the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday in a Mountain West Conference college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 2:00 p.m. ET in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
The Lobos are listed as 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at O/U 149.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this Mountain West college basketball matchup.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State prediction, preview
This is a massive game with both Mountain West and NCAA Tournament implications. San Diego State is tied atop the Mountain West with Utah State. The Aztecs are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament as an 11-seed. A win here against one of the other top teams in the conference could cement the Aztecs’ spot as an at-large bid. San Diego State is one of the elite defensive teams not only in the conference, but in the country. The Aztecs rank 17th in the nation in defensive rating this season. While they don’t have any truly elite scoring threats, leading scorer Reese Dixon-Waters has been playing well as of late. He is coming off a 20-point performance in San Diego State’s massive win over Utah State.
Unlike San Diego State, New Mexico is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA Tournament field. The Lobos are one game behind New Mexico and Utah State in the Mountain West standings. They are currently in the “First Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. If they could get a win here over San Diego State, there is a chance that they could slide into the Aztecs’ spot in the field. However, New Mexico might need to go on and win the Mountain West tournament to really cement a place in the Big Dance. New Mexico is a tough defensive team, ranking 35th in the nation in defensive rating. The Lobos have four players averaging double figures per game this season, led by freshman guard Jake Hall, who is averaging 16 points per game.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State pick
My best bet for this game is on San Diego State to cover the short 1.5-point spread. KenPom would make San Diego State a favorite at a neutral site. While New Mexico typically has a solid home environment, San Diego State should be up for this challenge. San Diego State won the first matchup this season between these teams. The Aztecs should also be full of confidence after their big win over Utah State. New Mexico has struggled against the other top teams in the conference, with a 1-3 record against San Diego State, Utah State and Nevada. Reese Dixon-Waters should keep his good play going and San Diego State should lean on its elite defensive prowess to get the win in this massive game.
