Penn State and Iowa will face off in a Big Ten matchup on Saturday, Feb. 28 at noon ET.
This is a lopsided affair as the Hawkeyes are 20-8 overall, while the Nittany Lions are 11-17. Penn State is at home, which shifts the tide slightly in its favor.
Iowa is a 9.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 145.5 points.
Here’s my prediction, preview and pick for Saturday’s Iowa vs. Penn State matchup.
Iowa vs. Penn State prediction, preview
Typically, this game wouldn’t draw much attention. The Hawkeyes are a 20-win team, while the Nittany Lions are in the basement of the Big Ten. The difference this time around is that Penn State is at home.
It can’t be overstated: home court advantage is a massive edge in college hoops. The home crowd and fans bring an energy to the arena that won’t be replicated on the road. The best teams can tune out that noise, but it’s often a problem for young college players.
While two of Penn State’s top three scorers are upperclassmen, the Nittany Lions have struggled all season. Nine of their 11 wins came out of conference, and they’re just 2-15 in Big Ten play. It’s been a long season for the group, and it doesn’t seem like it’ll get any better soon.
Meanwhile, Iowa is sitting just outside the Top 25, having earned three votes this past week. Senior guard Bennett Stirtz leads the team with 20.7 points, 4.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game. The offense flows through him, but that’s not the strength of the team. The defense is where Iowa shines—as it allows the 13th fewest points per game in Division I.
This defense will be a nightmare for Penn State, but it can stay in the game thanks to Iowa’s low-scoring offense.
Iowa vs. Penn State pick, best bet
Iowa should win this game. The question is by how much? Because Penn State has struggled throughout the season, especially during Big Ten play, it seems likely that Iowa can cover the 9.5-point spread on the road.
That said, the Hawkeyes’ offense is lackluster, and they rely on their defense to do the heavy lifting. They’ve scored 74, 71, 57, 57 and 70 in their last five games, winning just two. Some of these games were against ranked opponents, but one loss came against a Maryland team with the same overall record as Penn State.
Iowa’s offensive struggles are worrisome, which is why I’m taking Penn State +9.5 and under 145.5 total points.