The Nebraska Cornhuskers will face off with the USC Trojans at 4 p.m. ET during Saturday’s stacked college hoops slate.
This is the first matchup between these two Big Ten opponents, who have had different degrees of success this season. The programs have faced off just four times in their history, with Nebraska currently holding a 3-1 series advantage.
Nebraska is a 4.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at O/U 145.5 points.
Let’s take a look at a preview and a prediction for this matchup.
Nebraska vs. USC prediction, preview
Nebraska is 24-4 record this season and has gone 13-4 in the Big Ten. Its four losses have come against Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa. They slipped a bit in recent games after starting the season 20-0, but have largely exceeded expectations all around. The Cornhuskers have gone 15-3 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of their 28 games played.
Pryce Sandfort is the team’s leading scorer with 17.9 points, while shooting 40.4% from deep. Rienk Mast adds 13.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists, while Braden Frager and Jamarques Lawrence also average in double figures.
Fred Hoiberg’s squad is averaging 78.5 points per game, which ranks 125th among DI squads. The Cornhuskers rank 76th in offensive rating, 78th in field goal percentage, 84th in three-point percentage, and attempt the 14th-most threes in college basketball. Opponents are scoring 65.4 points per game, which is the 16th-fewest in DI. Nebraska also ranks 15th in defensive rating, 17th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 15th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The USC Trojans are 18-10 and have gone 7-10 in conference play. They’re on a four-game losing streak, which came against UCLA, Oregon, Illinois and Ohio State. The Trojans have dropped seven of their last 11 games leading into this matchup. USC has gone 13-14 against the spread, and the over has cashed in 14 of their 27 qualified games.
Rodney Rice was expected to be the team’s leading scorer this year, pouring in 20.3 points across his first six games, but he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Chad Baker-Mazara brings his vast collegiate experience and is producing 18.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, while shooing 38.3% on threes. Ezra Ausar averages 15.3 points and 6.4 rebounds, while Alijah Arenas is the lone other player to average in double figures.
Eric Musselman’s group is scoring 79.6 points per game, which ranks 98th among DI teams. USC also ranks 178th in offensive rating, 148th in field goal percentage, and 283rd in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 76.8 points per game against the Trojans, which ranks 257th in the country. USC also ranks 170th in defensive rating, 95th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 46th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Nebraska vs. USC pick, best bet
Nebraska has exceeded even optimistic expectations this year and has shown the ability to be a serious NCAA Tournament team. On the other hand, USC hasn’t been able to find its stride, somewhat due to injuries. This is an important matchup for the Trojans as they are currently a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament.
While I’ve held out hope for the Trojans, it may not be their year. There’s a ton of talent on the roster, but the team hasn’t been able to overcome Rice’s injury. USC is not in good form entering this matchup.
Nebraska is beatable, however, and it’s done by shooting well from distance. The Cornhuskers allow the sixth-most three-point attempts to opponents on the season. That said, USC is not built to exploit this, as it ranks 308th in the country in three-point attempts per game and 283rd in three-point percentage. The Trojans prefer to attack inside and get to the free throw line.
Nebraska is the better team on both sides of the ball, and the margin is more significant than the current spread indicates. The Cornhuskers also are smart with the ball, ranking 14th in the country in assists and 18th in turnovers per game. They shoot well from the perimeter and have proven to be capable of winning in either up-tempo matchups or in defensive battles.
