In the SEC, every weekend brings increased stakes and must-watch basketball. On Saturday, #25 Vanderbilt (22-6, 9-6) will hope to earn a road win at Rupp Arena. Awaiting the Commodores will be Kentucky (18-10, 9-6), now in Year Two under head coach Mark Pope. The Wildcats, while inconsistent, are among the nation’s more talented teams.
Vanderbilt enters today as 1.5-point favorites (-102) over Kentucky. The total is set at 155.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Commodores and the Wildcats.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky prediction, preview
Vanderbilt, despite a red-hot start, has hit a bit of a speed bump in recent weeks. The Commodores have gone 6-6 over their last 12 games. That includes a 69-65 defeat at home last weekend against hated Tennessee. Regardless, sleep on this group at your own peril. Vandy has recorded a +27.33 net rating on KenPom, second-best among all SEC schools. To boot, none of those recent losses have been bad, outside of a one-point defeat vs. Oklahoma. Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri and the Vols are all NCAA Tournament-caliber squads.
The Commodores have notched seven Quad 1 wins this season, including an 80-55 win over Kentucky last month. If they’re going to recapture that form, it’ll likely require a solid showing from Tyler Tanner. The guard leads this team with 18.5 points and 5.2 assists per game. Getting back fellow ball handler Duke Miles, who missed nearly a month due to injury, is crucial as well. Those two, when healthy, form one of the nation’s most reliable back courts. Per KenPom, Vandy owns a minuscule 13.3% turnover rate, ninth-best in college basketball.
It’s not as if Kentucky enters this one with much momentum. The program had lost three straight games prior to a nine-point win over South Carolina on Tuesday. Granted, all of those defeats were by single digits. A return to Lexington should do this group some good, as well. UK has gone 13-3 this season when playing at Rupp Arena.
Granted, the Wildcats don’t seem to possess a ton of fire power on offense. Just three players on the roster are putting up more than ten points per game. Still, it helps to have one of the sport’s top players in Otega Oweh. The senior is putting up 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 48% from the field. Don’t forget about Denzel Aberdeen, either. The guard has accounted for 12.9 points per game, as well.
The biggest issue for Big Blue is on the other end of the floor. Their 104.3 defensive rating is only good enough for 121st in college basketball. To be fair, that number is somewhat misleading. KenPom has the Wildcats at a much more respectable 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (99.2). However, that still places them a step below 21st-ranked Vanderbilt (). Kentucky has also had trouble containing guards, ranking 281st in opponent assist percentage (56.3). Keeping that in mind, Fuller and Miles could do some damage this afternoon.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky pick, best bet
Neither of these programs come into Saturday with too much confidence. Although Kentucky possesses home court advantage, this squad has had trouble against high-end competition. It’s fair to be somewhat skeptical of Vanderbilt based off of the last few weeks. However, the Commodores are deeper and more well-rounded, in addition to performing better against quality teams. Back the visitors in this pivotal SEC clash.
