The college basketball regular season is winding down with expectations building and tournament play right around the corner. But it is a loaded Saturday of matchups as the end of the regular season nears, with plenty of high-profile teams suiting up. Tipping off at 12:00 p.m. ET, the Colorado Buffaloes will face off with the Houston Cougars.
Looking at the odds, Houston enters as an 18.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 141.5.
Colorado vs. Houston prediction, preview
The Colorado Buffaloes hold a 16-12 record on the year and have gone 6-9 in Big 12 play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State. On the season, Colorado has gone 14-14 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 16 of their 28 games played.
Tad Boyle’s group is scoring 80.1 points per game, which ranks 89th in the country. The Buffaloes also rank 101st in offensive rating, 90th in team field goal percentage, and 109th in team three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 77.9 points per game against Colorado, which ranks 293rd of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The program also ranks 271st in defensive rating, 254th in opponent field goal percentage, and 333rd in opponent three-point percentage allowed.
Isaiah Johnson headlines the production for the Buffaloes, posting averages of 16.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists, shooting 37.1% on three-point attempts. Barrington Hargress adds 14.2 points and 4.4 assists of his own, while shooting a ridiculous 50.6% on perimeter shots. Sebastian Rancik and Bangot Dak also average in double figures, while combining for 12.2 rebounds per game. Alon Michaeli, Felix Kossaras, Jalin Holland, and Josiah Sanders also play key roles in the rotation.
The Houston Cougars are ranked fifth in the AP Poll with a 23-5 record on the season. They have gone 11-4 in Big 12 play and enter this matchup coming off their first three game losing streak since 2017. These losses came against Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State, with the other two losses coming against Tennessee and Texas Tech. On the season, Houston has gone 14-14 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 17 of their 28 games played.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad is scoring 76.6 points per game this season, which ranks 159th in the country. Houston also ranks 44th in offensive rating, 232nd in field goal percentage, and 214th in three-point percentage. Defense is more of the program’s calling card, as the Cougars are limiting teams to the second-fewest points per game at 62.3 on average. Houston also ranks 14th in defensive rating, 21st in opponent field goal percentage, and 63rd in opponent three-point percentage.
Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has emerged as a leader on this Houston team, posting averages of 16.6 points, 5.1 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game. Emanuel Sharp provides more experience in the backcourt, adding 16.0 points and 3.0 rebounds, while leading the conference with an 87.9% free-throw percentage. Milos Uzan is the lone other player to average in double figures, with 11.0 points, 4.0 assists, and 2.5 rebounds per game. Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler play massive roles in controlling the glass to round out the starting lineup.
Colorado vs. Houston pick, best bet
A bit of panic has sunk in following Houston’s third consecutive loss. But these were three extremely tough opponents, each ranked in the top 14 in the country, with two of the three coming on the road. To zoom out on the wider scale of the season, the Cougars have played excellent basketball all year.
Colorado has shown some nice flashes standing up to stiff competition this season. The Buffaloes took BYU to overtime on Saturday, lost by six to Kansas, and lost by two to Texas Tech earlier this year. However, they are 1-8 in Quad 1 matchups straight up, with the lone win coming against Arizona State. Colorado also had some blowouts in this mix, including getting beaten 78-44 on February 11 by Texas Tech and 97-67 to Iowa State on January 29.
Houston has one of the toughest defenses in the country and will be ready to bring a full-scale effort right from the opening tip-off. The Cougars’ largest difficulties have come on the offensive end, but expect them to have success against the 293rd-ranked scoring defense. The gap in talent between these two teams is notable, and this is a spot where Houston will be eager to put forth a convincing win.
Houston ranks 14th in college basketball with an average margin of victory of +14.4. Nine of their 23 wins have come by 19 points or greater. This recent stretch is the biggest adversity this collective unit has seen this season. If one characteristic of Kelvin Sampson’s teams have been made clear through the years, it is that mental and physical toughness is a non-negotiable to be a member of this organization.
Count on the Cougars to get back to playing their best basketball and send a message to the rest of the college basketball world with a convincing victory. Take the season-long sample size over the past three games and expect Houston to be eager to produce a different result. This is a matchup in which I expect the Cougars to assert themselves in the early minutes and put this game completely out of reach. Expect Colorado to have the unfortunate challenge of facing a motivated Houston team, and for this matchup to get ugly and separate by more than the 18.5-point margin.
