#1 Duke is the clear team to beat in the ACC. After the Blue Devils, this conference looks wide open. Two would-be contenders are set to clash on Saturday. #24 Louisville (20-8, 9-6) is coming off of a heartbreaking 77-74 defeat to #18 North Carolina. Now, the Cardinals will attempt to get back on track against another quality opponent. Clemson (20-8, 10-5) has been in a rut, dropping four straight games. Another loss would plant the Tigers firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Louisville enters Saturday as 1.5-point favorites (-102) over Clemson. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this afternoon’s game between the Cardinals and Tigers.
Louisville vs. Clemson prediction, preview
This is a true battle between polar opposites. Unlike their opponents, the Cardinals are all about putting up buckets. Louisville ranks 15th adjusted offensive efficiency (125.2) and 36th in adjusted tempo (70.4) on KenPom. Head coach Pat Kelsey depends heavily on his backcourt, lending itself to a fast-paced scoring attack. This group is putting up 86.4 points per game, 16th-most in all of college basketball. Leading the way are guards Mikel Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell. Together, the pair are averaging 37.4 points , 8.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game.
Granted, lighting up the scoreboard isn’t the only thing Louisville is good for. This group loves crashing the glass, ranking 21st in the nation with a 54.2% total rebounding percentage. However, the offense can be a bit hit-or-miss due to its tendency on three-point shooting. The Cardinals are taking 53.3 attempts per game from beyond the arc, third-most in the sport. That usually works out (36.1% 3PT), but some adaptability could be needed against elite perimeter defenses.
That might be needed on Saturday against a stingy Clemson squad. Brad Brownell’s crew has held teams to 31.5% shooting from three-point range. That’s sixth-best among all 18 ACC schools. On the whole, they’ve limited opponents to just 65.6 points per game, 18th-best in college basketball. It helps that the Tigers operate at a glacial pace on offense, ranking 337th out of 365 Division I programs in adjusted tempo (64.0).
With that being said, a hard-nosed defense can only get you so far. The other end of the floor has proven to be a perpetual issue for the Tigers this season. They sit at 74th in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.5) on KenPom. Just two players, RJ Godfrey and Carter Welling, are putting up more then ten points per game. Still, getting into a shootout in general doesn’t end well for Clemson. In half of the team’s losses this season, they’ve managed to score at least 74 points.
Louisville vs. Clemson pick, best bet
On a four-game losing streak, it’s nearly impossible to trust Clemson right now. A defeat at Duke is excusable; less so against middling ACC squads like Florida State and Wake Forest. On the flip side, Louisville’s high-octane offense will be even more motivated to fire away from deep rather than drive inside. While that occasionally leads to disaster, I’m willing to bet the Cardinals stay afloat from long distance.
