Want to know what separates college basketball from every other sport? The ability and frequency in which underdogs rise from obscurity. Only true hoops sickos had any idea we’d be talking about #21 Miami of Ohio at this point in the season. The undefeated RedHawks, 28-0, sit atop the Mid-American Conference. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if this group can make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
With that being said, heavy is the head that wears the crown. With each passing game, Miami OH becomes a target for other squads, each eager to ruin their perfect record. Does Western Michigan (10-18, 4-11) fit the bill of an upset candidate? Forget the win – will the Broncos even keep things close?
Miami of Ohio enters Friday as 12.5-point favorites (-110) over Western Michigan. The total is set at 164.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the RedHawks and the Broncos.
Miami OH vs. Western Michigan prediction, preview
First, the bad: Miami has been playing a tad bit above its talent level. Per KenPom, the RedHawks rank 83rd in college basketball with a +10.07 net rating. To boot, they possess a 107.9 adjusted defensive efficiency, 136th in the nation. None of those numbers scream ranked team, let alone March Madness dark horse.
Still, statistics can only go so far. The fact of the matter is, reeling off 28 straight wins is impressive for anyone, even a mid-major. There’s an argument to be made that this is one of the most well-rounded offenses in college basketball. Six different (currently healthy) RedHawks are averaging at least ten points per game. As a unit, they’re putting up 91.6 points per game, second-best among all Division I schools.
The knock on this group is their quality opponents, or lack thereof. Miami OH has faced just one Quad 2 team this season, a narrow 76-73 win over Akron. Every other program they’ve faced lies in Quads 3 and 4. That includes Western Michigan, who they beat 87-76 at home back in January. A similar result, if not better, will demand stellar shooting and decent defense. The RedHawks should be able to provide the former at the very least. They’re knocking down 52.9% of their field goal attempts this season, best in all of college basketball.
If Western Michigan is going to hang around in this one, it’ll need some solid individual performances. That means relying on its stellar backcourt. Leading scorer Justice Williams has been terrific, putting up 14.9 points per game. Upperclassmen Jayden Brewer (12.6 PPG, 6.7 REB) and Jalen Griffith (12.7 PPG, 3.5 AST) also give this offense a boost. The issue is down low, where Brewer is the only name snagging more than 6.0 rebounds per game. In fact, the Broncos have just one player taller than 6’7″ in their main rotation.
Fortunately for WMU, neither of these teams are exceptional on the glass. Both rank below 150th in the nation when it comes to total rebounding percentage. A more concerning sign for the Broncos is their inability to stop just about anyone. Western Michigan ranks 328th on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency (118.4). That’s not ideal against anyone, let alone an undefeated offensive juggernaut.
Miami OH vs. Western Michigan pick, best bet
Despite a sparkling 28-0 record, Miami OH has had its share of close calls. The RedHawks have eked out single-digit wins ten different times this season. A closer than expected result vs. the Broncos isn’t out of the question. However, I still expect the MAC leaders to light it up on offense. If Western Michigan’s backcourt comes to play, this one could turn into a shootout.
