The No. 13 Michigan State Spartans take on the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers in a Thursday night Big Ten battle. The game tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET in West Lafayette, Indiana.
The Boilermakers are listed as 7.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 142.5 points. Let’s dive into a full preview, prediction, and pick for this Big Ten showdown.
Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction, preview
These two teams have nearly identical resumes. Both teams are 12-4 in Big Ten play and 22-5 overall. Purdue is currently projected to be a 2-seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, while Michigan State is projected to be a 4-seed. Michigan State has good non-conference wins over Kentucky, UNC and Arkansas. Other than the loss to Minnesota, their other four losses all came against strong opponents. The only thing Michigan State is lacking on its resume is signature wins over Big Ten teams. Their best Big Ten win, which was a great one, was against Illinois. The Spartans face Purdue and Michigan in their last four games, both presenting great chances to add another signature win before the Big Ten Tournament. When Michigan State’s star guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is at his best, the Spartans can beat any team in the country.
Purdue has a couple of signature wins, which is why they are projected to be seeded ahead of Michigan State. In non-conference play, the Boilermakers beat Alabama and Texas Tech. In Big Ten play, their signature win came on the road against Nebraska. However, just like Michigan State, Purdue wants one more big win to solidify itself as a top seed in the Big Dance. Purdue is an incredibly experienced team, led by the senior guard duo of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Their frontcourt duo of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff are both seniors as well. It will be great to see two great teams led by two great coaches, Tom Izzo and Matt Painter, face off in this one.
Purdue vs. Michigan State pick
My best bet for this game is on the under 142.5 total points. This should feel like an NCAA Tournament game. These are two of the top 13 teams in the country, and both need one more signature win to cement or improve their March Madness seeding. This game also features two of the most experienced head coaches in college basketball, who know how to approach a game of this magnitude. As the traveling team, Michigan State should lean on its defense. There will be a wild crowd in West Lafayette. Going into that type of environment just to force up a bunch of bad shots and get into a transition game is a terrible idea.
Michigan State is one of the best defensive teams in the country. The Spartans rank sixth in the nation in defensive rating. If anyone is capable of slowing down the incredibly efficient Purdue offense, it’s them. Michigan State is also the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, with an average rebound differential of +12.6 rebounds per game this season. That should limit second-chance opportunities for Purdue. Michigan State ranks 266th in the nation in adjusted tempo and will want to play this game at a sluggish pace. That is fine with Purdue, who play even slower. The Boilermakers rank 295th in adjusted tempo. This should be a half-court chess match between two experienced teams with brilliant coaches, leading the game to go under the total.
