Don’t look now, but here comes #21 Louisville (19-6, 8-4). The Cardinals have won five straight games, hoping to make a strong push before the end of the regular season. However, they aren’t the only team with something to play for tonight. SMU (17-8, 6-6) may not be a prestigious basketball program, but the school has a strong NCAA Tournament resume. Earning a win against a ranked ACC foe would give the Mustangs another marquee victory.
Louisville enters Tuesday as 4.5-point favorites (-102) over SMU. The total is set at 166.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for this evening’s game between the Cardinals and Mustangs.
Louisville vs. SMU prediction, preview
Despite massive preseason expectations, Louisville has had a few slip-ups this season. Look no further than a 31-point loss against Duke in January. However, only two Cardinals defeats can be classified as blowouts. To boot, they’ve notched a combined 10-6 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. However, none of those wins came against a school currently ranked inside this week’s AP Poll.
Tuesday presents another opportunity for Louisville to rack up a quality win. In order to make that happen, expect the Cardinals to lean heavily on their star-studded backcourt. Ryan Conwell has been a menace this season, putting up 18.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He’s joined by freshman phenom Mikel Brown, who ranks second on the team in scoring (17.9 PPG). Three other members of this roster are putting up at least 10.0 points per game. Louisville’s 125.1 adjusted offensive efficiency is the 12th-best mark in college basketball on KenPom.
In many ways, SMU has operated like a worse version of Louisville. The Mustangs are all about offense, putting up the 19th-most points per game in college basketball (86.2). This is one of the sport’s most efficient scoring attacks, knocking down 49.5% of their field goal attempts while going 37.8% from three-point range. Both of those statistics rank 23rd and 24th in the nation, respectively. Kevin Miller (18.9 PPG) and Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.4 PPG) have dominated out of the backcourt. Elsewhere, B.J. Edwards, Corey Washington and 7’2″ center Samet Yigitoglu are all averaging at least ten points per game.
The difference between these two squads comes on the other end of the floor. Per KenPom, Louisville wields the 27th-best defensive efficiency (97.7) among all Division I schools. In comparison, SMU ranks 96th in that category (104.8). Opponents are taking 28.8 three-point attempts per game vs. Southern Methodist. That’s the eighth-highest mark in all of college basketball. The Cardinals rank fifth in the nation with 11.6 three-pointers made and 32.6 three-pointers attempted per game on offense.
Louisville vs. SMU pick, best bet
A trigger-happy Louisville offense should find plenty of success on the perimeter tonight in Dallas. While SMU has the horses (no pun intended) to keep up, it’s quite the tall order. When these two teams last met, on January 31st, the Cardinals delivered an 88-74 victory. Even on the road, not enough has changed between these two to expect a drastically different result.
