Following the conclusion of football season, March Madness is officially on the horizon, and there are some intriguing matchups across Monday’s college basketball slate. Tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET, the Indiana Hoosiers will host the Oregon Ducks in a Big Ten matchup.
Indiana enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Oregon sits as a +525 underdog. The game total is set at 143.5 points.
Oregon vs. Indiana prediction, preview
It has not been the season that Oregon was hoping for. The Ducks enter Monday’s matchup with an 8-15 overall record, which includes a brutal 1-11 mark in conference play. They’ve lost nine straight games, with their last victory, against Maryland, coming well over a month ago. The Ducks have gone 7-16 against the spread, falling below the game total in 13 of their 23 contests.
Nate Bittle headlines the production for Oregon, averaging 16.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game. Kwame Evans Jr. adds 13.1 points and 7.1 rebounds, while also playing a key role defensively. Takai Simpkins pitches in 12.6 points as well from the guard position. Sean Stewart, Drew Carter, Wei Lin, and Dezdrick Lindsay each also play significant roles.
Oregon is averaging just 71.7 points per game, which ranks 285th among 361 Division 1 teams. The Ducks also sit 112th in offensive rating, 292nd in field-goal percentage, and 276th in three-point percentage. Defensively, they rank 166th in opponent scoring, 100th in defensive rating, 164th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 214th in opponent perimeter efficiency.
Indiana should feel much happier with its start to the season, entering this matchup with a respectable 16-8 record. While the program has gone just 7-6 in Big Ten play, it has won four of its last five after snapping a four-game skid. The Hoosiers are 12-12 against the spread, falling under the game total in 13 of 24 matchups.
Lamar Wilkerson leads the way with 20.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, shooting an impressive 38% from three. Tucker DeVries adds 13.8 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Tayton Conerway contributes 11 points and four assists a night. Reed Bailey, Nick Dorn, Sam Alexis, Trent Sisley, and Conor Enright each also play key roles.
The Hoosiers are scoring 81.1 points per game this season, which ranks 88th among all D1 programs. Indiana also ranks 40th in offensive rating, 72nd in field-goal percentage, and 118th in perimeter efficiency. On the other end, the Hoosiers sit 90th in opponent scoring, 45th in defensive rating, 36th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 50th in opponent three-point percentage.
Oregon vs. Indiana pick, best bet
There is no argument that Indiana has been the better team all season to this point. However, this is a spot where Oregon should keep things competitive and cover the lofty 10.5-point spread.
This is a look-ahead game for the Hoosiers, who have largely returned to form after a rough stretch. They’ll likely set their sights on ranked matchups with Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State in the near future. If they fail to take this game seriously, the Ducks can capitalize.
Oregon has some notable flaws, but it has done a nice job of playing up to its competition this season. The Ducks rank seventh in strength of schedule and have things within double digits against the likes of Auburn, USC, Gonzaga, Michigan, and Purdue. Despite being mired in a brutal nine-game slide, they played some of their better basketball all season in Saturday’s narrow 68-64 loss to Purdue.
Indiana is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games as a favorite, struggling to separate itself from the rest of the pack. Oregon won’t blink at the matchup, given its imposing list of opponents already faced — and competed with — this season.
While I’m not bullish enough to suggest backing Oregon’s +500 moneyline odds, I’m predicting a much more competitive game than some would forecast. Expect Oregon to provide a bit of a scare and keep things close against the Hoosiers on Monday night.
