On the eve of the Super Bowl, there are still a ton of prop bets to analyze. One that I always have my eye on centers around the opening drive. How are the underdog Patriots going to come out of the gate against the Seahawks? Will Drake Maye and friends make a statement, or will this Seattle defense set the tone early?
Seattle is favored by 4.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total sits at 45.5 points.
Let’s get into what this first Patriots drive will look like.
The Pats did a great job setting the tone on offense in the regular season. They managed to score on 10 of their 17 opening drives, including four passing touchdowns, three rushing scores, and three field goals. Five drives ended in punts, and only two ended in turnovers (one interception and one fumble). Overall, it was a great job by Mike Vrabel’s team to get out on the front foot. They came into the playoffs on a good stretch, getting first-drive scores in four of their last five regular-season games.
But these playoffs have not been kind to New England. Facing some elite defenses, the Patriots have come out flat in all three playoff games. Punt. Punt. Punt.
Is this finally their chance to break through? Our oddsmakers certainly don’t think so. Here is how the opening drive odds break down for the Patriots:
New England’s recent run of play does not inspire confidence, and the safest play is to roll with the punt. But if you’re keen on finding some value down the list, I’d take a hard look at fumble lost.
Seattle was middle of the pack in fumble recoveries with seven during the regular season. They forced two more in a blowout win over the 49ers in the Divisional Round. The Pats coughed up eight fumbles of their own in the regular season, and they’ve already lost three during this playoff run. Drake Maye put the ball on the ground four times against the Texans alone, losing two of them.
Maye’s tendency to take sacks and literally drop the ball will be a point of emphasis for the Seattle defense. On top of that, starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson has ball-security struggles. The safe bet is to roll with a fourth-straight opening punt, but I really like the dart throw on the fumble.
