The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines in a Thursday night Big Ten battle. The game tips off at 6:30 p.m. ET in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The Wolverines are listed as 24.5-point road favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 161.5 points. Let’s dive into a full preview, prediction, and pick for this Big Ten showdown.
Michigan vs. Penn State prediction, preview
The Michigan Wolverines are the No. 2 team in the country. The Wolverines are 10-1 in Big Ten Play so far after going undefeated in the non-conference slate. They are averaging 90.5 points per game, the highest-scoring team in the conference this season. Senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, but the team doesn’t have a single player that they rely on for scoring. Instead, the Wolverines have five different players who are averaging double figures this season. They lead the nation in defensive rating and can win almost any type of game. The Wolverines love to push the tempo and use their athleticism. However, they also have no problem getting it done in the halfcourt.
It has been a polar opposite season for Penn State. While Michigan has just one loss in conference play, the Nittany Lions have just one win. They are tied for last place in the conference at 1-10, with that win actually coming in their most recent game. Penn State finally got a Big Ten win on Sunday against Minnesota, but things are still in a bad place in Happy Valley. They rank 128th in KenPom, squarely between the University of Illinois Chicago and Oakland. The Nittany Lions rank 250th in the nation in defensive rating and are allowing the second-most points per game of any Big Ten team.
Michigan vs. Penn State pick
My best bet for this game is for Michigan to finish under its team total of 93.5 points. Michigan is a massive favorite in this game and should dominate Penn State. However, this is an incredibly high team total for a college basketball game. Michigan was thrashing teams in non-conference play, regularly getting into the upper 90s and even triple digits. However, in Big Ten play, that has not been the case. Michigan has gone eight straight games scoring fewer than 90 points. If Michigan were determined to get over this number, it probably could. However, the Wolverines are clearly playing smart and focusing on the postseason. If they are winning this game by 20 points with 10 minutes left, the starters should rest, and bench players will enter the game. Penn State then should have much more defensive success and let this game just sputter out. After picking up their first win of the Big Ten slate, the Nittany Lions will hopefully come out with some confidence and make things tough on Michigan, at least for a little while.
