The Super Bowl is often about making an early statement — in 38 of the previous 59 Super Bowls, the team that scored first ultimately ended up winning. But an early touchdown isn’t always just lucrative for the team who scores it, it also can be lucrative for bettors. One of the most popular prop bets every Super Bowl is the jersey number of the first touchdown scorer.
There could be plenty of touchdowns scored during the game. This season, both the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots were among the league’s highest-scoring, as New England scored the third-most total touchdowns in the regular season and Seattle the seventh-most. The Seahawks have also scored at least 31 points during each of their playoff games, while the Patriots’ offense has been more muted.
The player with the best odds to score the first touchdown of the game is Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III, who wears No. 9. However, the three players who follow Walker all wear 11 or higher: Seahawks wideout Jaxon-Smith Njigba (#11), New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson (#38), and Seattle tight end AJ Barner (#88). Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (#10) closes out the list.
Though over is a heavy -160 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, getting the under at plus-money (+120) is worth it.
This prop bet basically hinges on Walker, who has been on quite the tear in these playoffs, recording 178 yards and four rushing touchdowns on just 38 carries. Walker scored the first touchdown of the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams, punching it in from two yards out on the team’s first drive of the game. Though only nine of the Seahawks’ touchdowns during the regular season were scored by players with low jersey numbers, Walker has become the go-to threat near the goal line now that Zach Charbonnet (#26) is done for the season with a torn ACL. Plus, 2022 Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp (#10) has had a large role in these playoffs, being targeted at least five times in both games and scoring once.
New England has two players with low jersey numbers who could realistically score. Maye did most of his damage with his arm, but he’s a decent athlete who racked up 450 rushing yards and four scores during the regular season and has added 141 rushing yards and a score in these playoffs, including the Patriots’ only touchdown of the AFC Championship Game. His top receiver, too, is Stefon Diggs (#8), who has had at least five targets in each of New England’s postseason appearances, scoring a touchdown in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans. Diggs has a decent matchup when he goes against Seattle slot corner Josh Jobe, who ranks just 91st among 109 qualified cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and the Seahawks’ elite front seven could incentivize Maye to run.
Ultimately, at -160, there isn’t a ton of value in projecting a player with a high jersey number to score first, and given how large of a role that Walker has had since Charbonnet’s injury, it’s worth trusting him to find paydirt first. If he can’t, Kupp, Maye, and Diggs are intriguing enough in their own right.
