Scoring first in the Super Bowl feels crucial, but is it? We have six full decades of history to help us understand the importance of the Big Game’s first points. Let’s look at the data following the Seattle Seahawks’ win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
Does the team that scores first typically win the Super Bowl?
Dating all the way back to Super Bowl I in 1967, teams that have scored first in the Big Game are 39-21. So roughly two-thirds of the time, the team that takes the first lead has gone on to win.
The predictive nature of the trend has faded a bit in recent years, however. Fourteen of the first 16 Super Bowl winners scored first, then 23 of the first 31 and 34 of the first 50. Over the last 10 years, though, teams that have scored first have gone 5-5. They were on a 1-4 skid before the Eagles broke the cold streak in 2025. Seattle kept the streak going by hitting the opening field goal en route to a win in 2026.
There was a similar lull in the scoring first trend in the 1980s. Over a stretch of six years, only one team that scored first went on to win. The Broncos in 1988, for instance, went up 10-0 before allowing six unanswered touchdowns to the Washington Redskins and losing 42-10. There was another 1-5 stretch for the trend between 2002 and 2007, with the Patriots being the lone team to score first and win in 2004. Immediately following that downturn, teams that scored first went on a 10-2 hot streak.
Both times the Super Bowl took place at Levi’s Stadium, the team that scored first won. In the Patriots’ 12 Super Bowl appearances, eight of the teams that scored first went on to win. In the Seahawks’ four Super Bowl appearances, teams that scored first are now 3-1. When Seattle scores first in the Super Bowl, they are 2-1, while New England is 3-1.
Year-by-Year Super Bowl History
1967: Green Bay Packers score first, WIN
1968: Green Bay Packers score first, WIN
1969: New York Jets score first, WIN
1970: Kansas City Chiefs score first, WIN
1971: Dallas Cowboys score first, LOSS
1972: Dallas Cowboys score first, WIN
1973: Miami Dolphins score first, WIN
1974: Miami Dolphins score first, WIN
1975: Pittsburgh Steelers score first, WIN
1976: Dallas Cowboys score first, LOSS
1977: Oakland Raiders score first, WIN
1978: Dallas Cowboys score first, WIN
1979: Pittsburgh Steelers score first, WIN
1980: Pittsburgh Steelers score first, WIN
1981: Oakland Raiders score first, WIN
1982: San Francisco 49ers score first, WIN
1983: Miami Dolphins score first, LOSS
1984: Los Angeles Raiders score first, WIN
1985: Miami Dolphins score first, LOSS
1986: New England Patriots score first, LOSS
1987: Denver Broncos score first, LOSS
1988: Denver Broncos score first, LOSS
1989: San Francisco 49ers score first, WIN
1990: San Francisco 49ers score first, WIN
1991: New York Giants score first, WIN
1992: Washington Redskins score first, WIN
1993: Buffalo Bills score first, LOSS
1994: Dallas Cowboys score first, WIN
1995: San Francisco 49ers score first, WIN
1996: Dallas Cowboys score first, WIN
1997: Green Bay Packers score first, WIN
1998: Green Bay Packers score first, LOSS
1999: Atlanta Falcons score first, LOSS
2000: St. Louis Rams score first, WIN
2001: Baltimore Ravens score first, WIN
2002: St. Louis Rams score first, LOSS
2003: Oakland Raiders score first, LOSS
2004: New England Patriots score first, WIN
2005: Philadelphia Eagles score first, LOSS
2006: Seattle Seahawks score first, LOSS
2007: Chicago Bears score first, LOSS
2008: New York Giants score first, WIN
2009: Pittsburgh Steelers score first, WIN
2010: Indianapolis Colts score first, LOSS
2011: Green Bay Packers score first, WIN
2012: New York Giants score first, WIN
2013: Baltimore Ravens score first, WIN
2014: Seattle Seahawks score first, WIN
2015: New England Patriots score first, WIN
2016: Denver Broncos score first, WIN
2017: Atlanta Falcons score first, LOSS
2018: Philadelphia Eagles score first, WIN
2019: New England Patriots score first, WIN
2020: San Francisco 49ers score first, LOSS
2021: Kansas City Chiefs score first, LOSS
2022: Los Angeles Rams score first, WIN
2023: Philadelphia Eagles score first, LOSS
2024: San Francisco 49ers score first, LOSS
2025: Philadelphia Eagles score first, WIN
2025: Seattle Seahawks score first, WIN
