The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks battle for all the glory in Super Bowl 60 this Sunday. Both sides have their fair share of star talent with excellent quarterbacks headlining both teams, a couple of workhorse halfbacks in the mix and one of the NFL’s best wide receivers all on the field. To top it all off, a litany of defensive players could make a play for one of the league’s most coveted awards during the big game.
Betting odds are live for Super Bowl MVP candidates, but who has the best shot at winning the award?
Who will win Super Bowl MVP?
Historic precedent
Here’s a brief overview of past Super Bowl MVP positional trends and data:
- Quarterbacks have won the award 34 times, nearly 57% of the time.
- Wide receivers have brought it home eight times.
- Halfbacks (and fullbacks) have won SBMVP seven times.
- Only 10 non-offensive players have won it (including both defense and special teams).
Based on past results, it’s likely that one of the two quarterbacks will receive the most consideration from voters. The guidelines are fairly simple, as quarterbacks typically win with either 250+ passing yards or multiple touchdown passes. Other offensive skill players usually have a chance at winning with 100+ yards or multiple scores of their own. Defenders do have a chance, too, but typically need a truly game-breaking performance with multiple sacks, turnovers, or a key touchdown.
Odds to win Super Bowl 60 MVP
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the quarterbacks lead the way on the odds leaderboard just as expected. Here are the top-10 players in order.
- Sam Darnold, SEA, QB (+115)
- Drake Maye, NE, QB (+240
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, WR (+550)
- Kenneth Walker III, SEA, RB (+800)
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, RB (+2800)
- Rashid Shaheed, SEA, WR/ST (+3000)
- Stefon Diggs, NE, WR (+5000)
- Marcus Jones, NE, CB (+6000)
- TreVeyon Henderson, NE, RB (+7500)
- Nick Emmanwori, SEA, S (+7500)
Super Bowl MVP best bets
It’s no surprise to see the quarterbacks atop the leaderboard in terms of odds to win Super Bowl MVP. As discussed earlier, the award traditionally goes to the field general of whatever team wins barring a massive performance from someone else. Whether that’s a fair trend or not remains up for debate, but it does guide how bettors should attack the award.
Sam Darnold: The Seahawks enter as 4.5-point favorites in this contest, so it’s only natural that Darnold leads the way. The value you get from taking him isn’t stellar by any means, but he does hold plus odds to win the award and is probably both the safest and chalkiest pick one can make. Seattle has been dominant on both offense and defense this season, and the Patriots haven’t exactly excelled at scoring points via their own offense. Coming off a 346-yard, three-touchdown performance in the NFC Championship Game (and 124 yards with a touchdown in a Divisional Round rout), the signal caller is yet to turn into a pumpkin. With turnover-free football and an awesome offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak, he makes a lot of sense for those who want the likeliest option.
Drake Maye: Similarly, Maye also profiles as a top selection for those who want to target safer choices. A quarterback on the other sideline, he’s played like an MVP candidate throughout the entire campaign — even if the playoff stats aren’t amazing. The second-year gunslinger threw for 268 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Wild Card; 179 yards with three touchdowns and a pick in the Divisional; and just 68 yards in the AFC Championship Game (blizzard-like conditions may have played a factor there). The Patriots’ offense hasn’t played its best football yet and may not against an elite defense, but Maye will be heavily involved of course. If you think New England wins, he’s your guy.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The Seahawks’ top target is the drumbeat which keeps their offense moving the chains. Smith-Njigba paced the entire NFL in receiving yards this season with 1,793, catching 119 balls (third-most) with 10 receiving touchdowns (fourth-most). He’s a top-five talent at his position without a doubt, and he only proved it with a massive performance in his last playoff game. After a quiet 3-19-1 line in the Divisional Round blowout, Smith-Njigba exploded for 10 receptions, 153 yards and a score in the NFC Championship Game. It marked his ninth 100-yard outing of the season, and in competitive games, his floor sits at somewhere around six catches for 70-ish yards. If you’re taking a non-quarterback, this is the guy to snag at +550 value, especially with the NFL’s highest target share at 36.2%.
Rashid Shaheed: For those in search of a long-shot bet, Shaheed is who you may want. The wideout made his way to Seattle via trade this season and hasn’t seen a huge receiving role, but he does see snaps on offense and can haul in the occasional deep reception thanks to his speed and ball-tracking. He could hit a long touchdown here, but that’s not the only way he can make a massive impact. Shaheed is also an elite return man, housing three kicks/punts for a touchdown, a track record that includes one in the Divisional Round as well. Desmond Howard notably won Super Bowl XXXI MVP as a kick returner with a 99-yard return for a score, though he logged 244 all-purpose yards in that game via the return game as a whole to solidify his case. Still, a big night on special teams could swing the outcome and earn hardware for Shaheed at +3000 odds.
