Big Ten squads looking to gain some consistency are set to meet tonight in Evanston. Washington (11-10, 3-7) is coming off of a hard-fought loss on Thursday vs. Illinois. The Huskies will look to bounce back on their road trip against Northwestern (10-11, 2-8). It’s been a difficult season for the Wildcats, but they remain an above-average program under head coach Chris Collins.
Northwestern enters as 1.5-point favorites (-115) over Washington. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Huskies and the Wildcats.
Washington vs. Northwestern prediction, preview
Say what you will about the Huskies, but they have a knack for hanging around against superior squads. UW lost by ten or fewer points against #3 Michigan, #5 Nebraska and #9 Illinois. Still, moral victories only mean so much when your team is one game above .500. It’s not as if Washington is lacking talent. Center Hannes Steinbach ranks among the nation’s top freshman. Through 18 games, the German is averaging 17.4 points and a Big Ten-leading 11.3 rebounds. At guard, Zoom Diallo (14.9 PPG) and Wesley Yates (12.7 PPG) continue to impress.
Unfortunately for Washington, veteran playmaker Desmond Claude is still dealing with ankle and knee issues. His absence is notable for a program that lacks backcourt depth. Still, the Huskies have an abundance of size, hauling in the Big Ten’s fourth-most rebounds per game (38.1). Where this offense falls short is shooting the ball. They’ve posted a .502 efficient field goal percentage, fourth-worst in the conference. Still, this remains a fairly well-rounded unit. Per KenPom, Washington’s +16.3 adjusted efficiency margin ranks as the 47th-best in college basketball.
In many ways, this is a matchup between similar programs. Northwestern sits at 54th on KenPom’s net rating (+13.7), just eight spots below Washington. Still, in the loaded Big Ten, ‘decent’ doesn’t cut it. The Wildcats have looked rough during conference play, earning just two wins so far. However, they are coming off of an impressive 94-73 win at home on Thursday vs. Penn State. The Nittany Lions aren’t world-beaters, but a 21-point win is nothing to sneeze at. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats are a respectable 7-4 at home this season. In comparison, the Huskies are 2-6 on the road.
If the visitors are going to earn a win, they’ll likely need to slow down Nick Martinelli. The 6’7″ forward is a one-man wrecking crew, putting up eye-popping numbers this season. Over 20 games, the junior has posted a Division I-leading 24.0 points to go with 6.7 rebounds and 55/49/79 shooting splits. That level of production combined with consistency is rare, especially for a non-powerhouse program. Martinelli has tallied at least 20 points in all but three of his appearances so far.
With that being said, the rest of this roster is middling, at best. Just two other Wildcats are putting up more than ten points per game. The team is also somewhat undersized, snagging the Big Ten’s fourth-fewest rebounds per game (33.1). That could spell trouble against Steinbach and a tall Huskies frontcourt. Where Northwestern does thrive is ball control, turning it over just 8.4 times per game. On the flip side, Washington is middle of the pack when it comes to generating steals.
Washington vs. Northwestern pick, best bet
It’s easy to see why this line is essentially a pick ’em. Both of these rosters have underperformed, wielding high-level scorers and capable defenses. In a spot with two evenly-matched teams, home court advantage takes on added importance. As previously mentioned, the Huskies have struggled on the road. Even if Washington keeps it close, Northwestern has the crowd and the best player on the floor. That’s enough for me to lean towards the Wildcats on Saturday.
