Two of the Big East’s best are set to clash tonight at Madison Square Garden. Butler (13-7, 4-5) has been a pleasant surprise, remaining in contention for an NCAA Tournament spot. Still, every game is crucial for a Bulldogs squad looking to boost its resume. Wednesday presents a golden opportunity against #25 St. John’s. Despite a shaky start, the Red Storm remain in the mix for their second-straight conference title.
Which of these contenders will come out on top tonight? St. John’s enters as 12.5-point favorites (-115) over Butler. The total is set at 160.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Wednesday’s game between the Bulldogs and the Red Storm.
Butler vs. St. John’s prediction, preview
Butler doesn’t have a ton of depth; just two players on this roster are averaging double-digit points. However, that duo ranks among the best in college basketball. Finley Bizjack leads the Bulldogs with 17.5 points per game on 45% shooting from the field. He’s accompanied by Michael Ajayi, who came to the program as a transfer from Gonzaga this summer. The senior has been phenomenal, putting up 16.5 points and a Big East-leading 11.5 rebounds per game.
Still, being so reliant on just two players isn’t an ideal spot. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs are giving up 75.9 points per game, 240th among 365 Division I schools. Still, that number is due more to the team’s rapid-fire pace. Per KenPom, Butler owns a far more respectable 104.4 adjusted defensive efficiency margin. That’s good enough for the 84th-best mark in college basketball. In a matchup against an elite center, such as tonight, it’ll take a solid defensive effort from big men Yohan Traore and Drayton Jones.
Speaking of centers, the headliner for St. John’s is Zuby Ejiofor. Despite inconsistency elsewhere, the senior has held things down for SJU in the paint. Over 20 games, he’s recorded 15.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals. When these teams last met, on January 6th, Ejiofor posted 18 points over 29 minutes. Unlike Butler, the strength for the Red Storm is their depth. Six different Johnnies are averaging at least 8.5 points per game. In addition, this is an experienced unit. Four of the team’s five highest scorers are upper classmen.
Unlike last year’s crew, defensive effort has fallen short at times this season. St. John’s has coughed up a decent, but somewhat disappointing, 72.7 points per game to opponents. However, advanced metrics suggest that SJU has gotten a tad unlucky so far. KenPom ranks Rick Pitino’s team inside the top 35 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency; only 15 other schools can say the same. In addition, the Johnnies have reeled off six straight wins, earning a spot in the AP Poll. For a group that entered the year with massive expectations, they appear to be playing up to their potential.
Butler vs. St. John’s pick, best bet
Butler, for all its limitations, tends to keep things competitive. The Bulldogs have already secured two Quad-1 wins away from home. They’ve also lost by a combined six points against potential tournament teams in Creighton and SMU. In comparison, St. John’s has survived a few close calls over the past month. Keep in mind, SJU trailed by 15 points in the second half last week vs. Seton Hall. It’s reasonable to believe they won’t earn a comfortable victory, even at home. The Red Storm should pull this one out, but it won’t be easy.
