Holding a lead heading into the final quarter of the Super Bowl seems like a pretty clear path towards a Lombardi Trophy, but how often do teams make fourth quarter comebacks in the Big Game? We have six full decades of history to chart the probability of a squad erasing a deficit in the last 15 minutes. Let’s look at the data following the Seattle Seahawks’ win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
How many fourth-quarter comebacks have there been in the Super Bowl?
There have been 18 fourth-quarter comebacks in Super Bowl history. So there have effectively been fourth-quarter comebacks in 30.0% of Super Bowls, or one every 3.3 years. That actually makes fourth-quarter comebacks more common than halftime comebacks, which have only happened 13 times in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots are tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in the Super Bowl with three, achieving the feat against the Panthers in 2004, the Seahawks in 2015 and the Falcons in 2017. They have also allowed two fourth-quarter comebacks, though, to the New York Giants in both 2008 and 2012. The Steelers, Giants and Chiefs are the other teams that have staged three fourth-quarter comebacks in the Super Bowl. Those four teams account for 12 of the 19 fourth-quarter comebacks, with the Colts, Dolphins, 49ers, Saints, Eagles and the Rams combining for the rest.
Through 2007, there had only been seven fourth-quarter comebacks across the first 41 Super Bowls. In the last 19 years, however, there have been 11.
History of Super Bowl 4Q Comebacks
1971: Baltimore Colts trailed Dallas Cowboys 13-6 with 7:54 remaining, won 16-13
1976: Pittsburgh Steelers trailed Dallas Cowboys 10-7 with 11:57 remaining, won 21-17
1980: Pittsburgh Steelers trailed Los Angeles Rams 19-17 with 12:05 remaining, won 31-19
1983: Miami Dolphins trailed Washington Redskins 17-13 with 10:02 remaining, won 27-17
1989: San Francisco 49ers trailed Cincinnati Bengals 13-6 with 14:10 remaining, won 20-16
1992: New York Giants trailed Buffalo Bills 19-17 with 8:01 remaining, won 20-19
2004: New England Patriots trailed Carolina Panthers 22-21 with 6:53 remaining, won 32-29
2008: New York Giants trailed New England Patriots 14-10 with 0:36 remaining, won 17-14
2009: Pittsburgh Steelers trailed Arizona Cardinals 23-20 with 0:36 remaining, won 27-23
2010: New Orleans Saints trailed Indianapolis Colts 17-16 with 5:43 remaining, won 31-17
2012: New York Giants trailed New England Patriots 17-15 with 0:58 remaining, won 21-17
2015: New England Patriots trailed Seattle Seahawks 24-14 with 7:56 remaining, won 28-24
2017: New England Patriots trailed Atlanta Falcons 28-9 with 9:45 remaining won 34-28 (OT)
2018: Philadelphia Eagles trailed New England Patriots 33-32 with 2:22 remaining, won 41-33
2020: Kansas City Chiefs trailed San Francisco 49ers 20-10 with 6:14 remaining, won 31-20
2022: Los Angeles Rams trailed Cincinnati Bengals 20-16 with 1:26 remaining, won 23-20
2023: Kansas City Chiefs trailed Philadelphia Eagles 27-23 with 12:05 remaining, won 38-35
2024: Kansas City Chiefs trailed San Francisco 49ers 19-16 with 0:04 remaining, won 25-22 (OT)
