For as comforting as it can be to take a lead into the locker room at halftime, how predictive is it of Super Bowl outcomes? We now have six full decades of history to help us determine the importance of a halftime lead in the Big Game. Here’s a breakdown of the data following the Seattle Seahawks’ win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
How often do teams come back from a halftime deficit to win the Super Bowl?
Over the past 60 years, there have only been 13 teams to overcome a halftime deficit and secure the Lombardi Trophy. As a result, teams that trail at halftime have won the Super Bowl at a 21.7% rate. Teams come back from a halftime hole once every 4.6 Super Bowls, on average. The New York Giants account for four of those 13 comebacks, having trailed at the half in all five of their Super Bowl appearances. When the Giants aren’t participating, teams down at halftime win the Super Bowl at a 16.7% rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs came back to win in both 2023 and 2024, marking the first time ever that back-to-back Super Bowls featured the team trailing at the half ultimately emerging victorious. Those are the only instances of a successful second-half comeback in the last nine seasons, however, and two of the mere three over the past 14 seasons.
The Patriots are 5-2 when leading at halftime in the Super Bowl, compared to their 1-4 record when down at the break. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 2-0 when leading and 0-2 when trailing at halftime.
Prior to Super Bowl LI, no team had ever trailed by multiple scores at halftime of the Super Bowl and gone on to win. New England broke that trend by overcoming a 21-3 deficit against the Atlanta Falcons in 2017, while the Chiefs joined them by erasing a 24-14 gap against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023. But while it has happened twice in the last nine years, it did not happen in any of the previous 50.
Super Bowl Halftime Comeback History
1971: Baltimore Colts trailed 13-6, won 16-13
1976: Pittsburgh Steelers trailed 10-7, won 21-17
1980: Pittsburgh Steelers trailed 13-10, won 31-19
1983: Washington Redskins trailed 17-10, won 27-17
1987: New York Giants trailed 10-9, won 39-20
1991: New York Giants trailed 12-10, won 20-19
1994: Dallas Cowboys trailed 13-6, won 30-13
2008: New York Giants trailed 7-3, won 17-14
2010: New Orleans Saints trailed 10-6, won 31-17
2012: New York Giants trailed 10-9, won 21-17
2017: New England Patriots trailed 21-3, won 34-28
2023: Kansas City Chiefs trailed 24-14, won 38-35
2024: Kansas City Chiefs trailed 10-3, won 25-22
