The No. 14 UVA Cavaliers host the No. 22 UNC Tar Heels on Saturday in an ACC college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 12:00 p.m. ET in Charlottesville, Virginia. The game time was moved up two hours earlier than originally planned due to the incoming winter storm.
The Cavaliers are listed as 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 148.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and pick for this ACC college basketball matchup.
UVA vs. UNC prediction, preview
The Virginia Cavaliers are having a great season in their first year under Ryan Odom. After Tony Bennett’s abrupt retirement in October 2024, UVA was put into a tough position. They hired Ron Sanchez in an interim position, and the team finished the season with a losing record. After last season, they hired the at-the-time VCU head coach Ryan Odom. Odom has come in and done an impressive job with this group in his first season. The Cavaliers are off to a 6-2 start in ACC play and are riding a five-game winning streak coming into this big matchup against UNC. This is a well-rounded team, with five players averaging at least 9.8 points per game. However, they are led by freshman forward Thijs De Ridder, who is averaging 16 points and 6 rebounds per game.
The UNC Tar Heels had a good non-conference run but have struggled since ACC play started. Hubert Davis’ squad picked up good wins over Kansas, Ohio State and Kentucky in non-conference play. However, they are just 3-3 in conference play so far. All three of those losses have come on the road, against SMU, Stanford and Cal. Caleb Wilson is one of the best players in the country, averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. The Tar Heels also have a great scoring center, Henri Veesaar. However, they have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor, especially in conference play.
UVA vs. UNC pick
My best bet for this game is for UVA to cover as 6.5-point favorites. UVA has won 11 of its past 12 games, and the only loss during that stretch came in triple overtime against Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have also yet to lose a home game this season. Meanwhile, UNC has really struggled on the road. They have lost all three road games in ACC play, and none of those losses have come against teams as good as UVA. In those road losses, UNC gave up 97 points to SMU, 95 points to Stanford and 84 points to Cal.
Virginia is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, ranking 17th in both offensive rating and defensive rating. The Cavaliers should be able to score with ease against the Tar Heels, who are really struggling at the end of the floor. Meanwhile, they should be able to slow down UNC with their solid, well-coached defensive abilities. The Cavaliers have been dominant at home, while UNC has struggled on the road. That trend should continue in this game with another UVA win and cover.
