After what seemed like a long winter holiday, the UEFA Champions League is back. The final two weeks of League Phase play are set to take place this week and next. Plenty of upsets occurred in the Tuesday action, as Bodø/Glimt took down Manchester City and Sporting Portugal upset title-holders Paris Saint-Germain. More upsets are surely in store for Wednesday’s nine-game offering.
Arguably the more intriguing matchup on the early slate is one between Galatasaray and Atlético Madrid. It is set to kick off at 12:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. local) at RAMS Park in Istanbul.
Los Colchoneros are +105 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Cimbom is +235, with +280 odds of a draw.
Galatasaray vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, pick
Galatasaray is in the much more precarious position entering tonight’s match. Through six matches, the Turkish side is on nine points, good for advancement but merely two points ahead of Qarabag, which currently sits in 25th. Cimbom is also facing a difficult match next Wednesday in the final game of League Phase action, when it travels to the Etihad to take on Manchester City, so while picking up at least a point isn’t strictly necessary, it would make next Wednesday’s match less nerve-wracking. Atlético Madrid is fighting for a direct place in the Round of 16, as it currently sits 10th in the table with a game in hand over six of the eight teams currently in position for a bye, and it has a fairly friendly finishing match in Bodø/Glimt, which is almost certain to be eliminated even after beating the Sky Blues on Tuesday. It’s likely that Los Colchoneros could lose to Galatasaray and still go through with a bye if they beat the Norwegian side at home next Wednesday.
Cimbom certainly shouldn’t be underestimated. It has raced to the top of Türkiye’s Süper Lig yet again, losing just once and drawing four times in 18 matches, behind a combination of aging stars (Leroy Sané and Mauro Icardi have nine goal contributions each) and young talent (Barış Alper Yılmaz and Yunus Akgün, a pair of 25-year-old Turks, have combined for 21 goal contributions each). Galatasaray is also set to get arguably its best player back, as Victor Osimhen — fresh off of leading Nigeria to a third-place finish at the Africa Cup of Nations — has returned to practice, and Senegal’s AFCON-winning defender Ismail Jakobs is also expected to be available. Both African stars will provide a huge boost to a team that has already had the second-best attack and second-best defense in Türkiye. Cimbom also ranks 14th in shots on target per 90 minutes and has allowed the seventh-fewest. It hasn’t been clinical, ranking second-to-last in goals per shot on target, but as long as Osimhen continues to get shots off at high volume, he should be a near-guarantee to find the back of the net. He might have to score, given that goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır ranks 12th-to-last in save percentage among the shot-stoppers who have faced at least 20 shots on target.
One of the 11 goalkeepers Çakır ranks ahead of is Atlético’s Jan Oblak, who’s saved only 11 of the 22 shots on target he’s faced so far this competition, and while he’s saved 70.9% of his shots in La Liga, that’s still a bottom-half mark in that competition. Los Colchoneros have made up for the Slovenian’s struggles so far by having the fourth-most potent attack in Spain and allowing the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, but Oblak will need to rediscover his form if Atleti wants to make a deep run in the Champions League. Los Colchoneros still have a dangerous front three, with Julián Álvarez, Antoine Griezmann, and Alexander Sørloth each netting at least six goals in La Liga, and Marcos Llorente has added three more in the Champions League. They’ve been far more clinical in the Champions League, ranking 10th in shots on target per 90 minutes and sixth in goals per shots on target, but their defense has let them down in the European competition, as they rank below Galatasaray in opponent goals, shots on target per 90 minutes, and goals per shot on target. Atleti is also just 1-3 combined against the other traditional giants in La Liga.
Home-field advantage could swing the match in the Istanbul side’s favor. Cimbom has fed off of the famously vibrant atmosphere at RAMS Park to pick up wins over Liverpool and Bodø/Glimt at home, and while the Reds’ subsequent struggles have made that victory look less impressive, its undefeated home record in the Süper Lig is hard to ignore. The crowd might especially be abuzz now that Osimhen is back in action. Meanwhile, Los Colchoneros are just 1-2 on the road, and though their losses came to solid teams (Arsenal and Liverpool), they’ve gone just 3-4-3 away from home in La Liga. At +235, it’s certainly worth a flier on Galatasaray to claim all three points and secure its first advancement to the Champions League knockout phase since 2013-14.
