The No. 16 Texas Tech Red Raiders and No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini are set to face off Tuesday night, going head-to-head in Lubbock, Texas. The nonconference showdown will tip off at 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Illinois is a 2.5-point road favorite, and the total has been set at 161.5 points. The Illini have -142 moneyline odds, while the Red Raiders’ odds are sitting at +120. Here is a preview of the Big 12 vs. Big Ten matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Preview
Texas Tech Preview
The Red Raiders were in a great spot last season, in a prime position to ride their 2025 Elite Eight appearance to further glory in 2026. However, star forward JT Toppin tore his ACL in February, largely derailing Tech’s season. It earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, but ultimately posted a 1-4 record in March and suffered a blowout loss to Alabama in the round of 32. And while Toppin opted to return for another season of college ball, he is still recovering from surgery and won’t be back for at least a few more weeks.
In Toppin’s absence, Texas Tech has managed to open the season with a 76-42 win over Jackson State and a 76-58 win versus Bethune-Cookman. It has had to replace much more than Toppin, though, since wing Tyeree Bryan exhausted his eligibility, Christian Anderson went to the NBA and LeJuan Watts, Jaylen Petty and Luke Bamgboye all hit the transfer portal. Veteran wing Donovan Atwell, who started all 34 games and averaged 13.5 points per game a year ago, is averaging just 6.5 points per game on 16.7% shooting from the field through two contests. Forward Josiah Moseley has taken on a larger role and is averaging 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game so far this season, although he is still coming off the bench.
Cruz Davis leads the Raiders with 15.0 points, 4.5 assists and 4.5 steals per game, technically sharing the scoring lead with his backcourt mate, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. Both players averaged 20-plus a year ago and won scoring titles for their respective conferences – Davis at Hofstra and Gibbs-Lawhorn at UNLV, following a two-year stint at Illinois. Wyoming transfer guard Damarion Dennis is averaging 13.5 points per game off the bench with forwards Bassala Bagayoko and Darrion Williams rounding out the starting five. Williams is back for his third season in Lubbock after a one-year spell at NC State, while Bagayoko is a freshman from Mali who previously played in Spain.
Through one week of action, Texas Tech forces the 11th-most turnovers per game in the country. It is also attempting the 16th-fewest two-pointers per game and holding its opponents to the fewest two-point attempts per game. Per KenPom, the Red Raiders run the No. 313 tempo in Division I. They come in at No. 17 in opponent-adjusted net rating, ranking No. 14 on offense and No. 27 on defense.
Illinois Preview
Fresh off their first Final Four appearance in two decades, the Illini find themselves as one of the title favorites early on in the 2026-27 campaign. Coach Brad Underwood brought back five of his seven best rotation players, only losing the guard duo of Kylan Boswell and Keaton Wagler to the NBA. Illinois suffered an injury blow of its own, though, with sophomore forward David Mirkovic undergoing offseason foot surgery that will keep him out a few more weeks. Without him, the Illini still jumped out to a 2-0 start with a record-breaking 120-45 beatdown of Fairleigh Dickinson and a 112-70 victory against Penn.
Senior guard Andrej Stojakovic is Illinois’ leading scorer with 22.5 points per game. None of the other returnees have contributed much, with the 7-foot Ivisic twins Tomislav and Zvonimir averaging just 11.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game between them. Instead, five-star freshman guard Quentin Coleman ranks second on the team with 16.0 points per game, followed by Providence transfer guard Stefan Vaaks at 15.5 points per game. Four-star freshman forward Zavier Zens is averaging 15.0 points per game of his own, while three-star freshman guards Ethan Brown and Lincoln Williams are putting up 12.5 and 12.0 a night, respectively.
Illinois averages the second-most points per game in the country while allowing the 37th-fewest, on top of leading the nation in two-point field-goal percentage. Losing senior sharpshooter Jake Davis to shoulder surgery hasn’t impacted Underwood’s inside-out offensive scheme, since the Illini are still attempting the fifth-most triples per game of any DI team. In the latest KenPom rankings, Illinois slots in at No. 4 overall with the No. 1 adjusted offensive rating and No. 22 adjusted defensive rating. Its 45th-ranked pace is also the fastest of any team in the KenPom top 10.
Texas Tech vs. Illinois Pick, Best Bet
The Illini and Red Raiders faced off in a closely fought classic this time last year, when Illinois emerged with an 81-77 win in Champaign. But Toppin had 35 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and three steals in that game, and he won’t be suiting up this time around. Illinois playing without Davis likely won’t sway things too much, since he didn’t attempt a shot in 15 minutes in last year’s showdown, plus it was without Tomislav Ivisic. Of course, no Mirkovic, Boswell or Wagler makes this a different group for the Illini, too, so it’s hard to put too much stock in the rematch aspect of Tuesday’s game.
Illinois was one of the best pick-and-roll teams in the country last year. It has barely used that action in the early goings this season, not scoring a single point via ball screens in its opener. Part of that can be attributed to Boswell and Wagler’s departures, but it seems more like Underwood simply experimenting with his new rotation when the stakes have been relatively low. The Illini boast the best offense in the country, and now they have a reason to actually pull out all the stops. Not too many teams have Illinois’ size and pace, both of which make it a particularly difficult matchup for a Texas Tech squad trying to solve its own questions. It crashes the offensive boards like crazy, too, all while the Red Raiders boast one rotation player taller than 6-foot-8.
This should once again be a hotly contested nonconference affair, but I like the Illini to come out on top and assert themselves as a force to be reckoned with. That being said, the Illini will likely have to run real plays in order to score in crunch time rather than just going with the flow. While we haven’t seen that yet, Underwood’s past tendencies and his treasure trove of ball-handlers make it easy to see them converting when it counts.
