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Prediction, pick for Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324

Prediction, pick for Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324

Sports Betting Picks UFC DraftKings Network

Published:

By: Ryan Wohl

With UFC Lightweight Champion Ilia Topuria sidelined, Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will face off in the Main Event of UFC 324 for the Interim Lightweight title. UFC 324 is the first event of the Paramount era for the UFC, beginning their seven year partership with the company. Gaethje is a former BMF and Interim Champion and won the Interim title against Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 in May 2020. The Highlight is coming off a victory against Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313 in March, while Pimblett is 7-0 in the UFC with his latest win against Michael Chandler at UFC 314 in April 2025.

Check out my best bet and preview for tonight’s Main Event between Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324.

RELATED UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Full Card, Odds

Paddy Pimblett to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-145)

Pimblett entered the UFC in September 2021 and has since gone unbeaten in seven fights. Even though Pimblett hasn’t been the most active fighter, he has faced tougher competition each time while putting on elite performances. Pimblett submitted King Green and knocked out Michael Chandler in his previous two contests. Gaethje is 3-1 in his previous four contests but has lost his last two fights for the Lightweight title.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Justin Gaethje is a +200 underdog while Pimblett is a -245 favorite. The over/under for this fight is 2.5 rounds, with the over being -120. Pimblett is -145 to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission, while Gaethje is +380 to get the victory by finish.

On paper, Gaethje is one inch taller (5’11” vs. 5’10”), while Pimblett has a three-inch reach advantage (73″ vs. 70″). Gaethje averages an impressive 6.59 significant strikes, 1.40 more than Pimblett, while being the more accurate striker (58% vs. 53%). Pimblett is more defensively sound, absorbing 3.14 significant strikes, four fewer than Gaethje does. Pimblett is the more versatile fighter, averaging 1.7 submissions per 15 minutes while landing 0.96 takeaways. Since five of Pimblett’s seven victories in the UFC have come by finish, it is best to get him to win this fight by submission or knockout at -145.

Ryan Wohl

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.