The Mavericks are hosting the Nuggets on Wednesday. Let’s explore how the public is betting this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
For Moneyline bets for this game, 66% of the bets are on the Nuggets at +120, but 62% of the handle is backing the Mavericks at -142. Seeing most of the money in Dallas isn’t a surprise. The Mavericks are 2-0 vs. the Nuggets this season. This time around, Denver will be without Nikola Jokic (knee) and Jamal Murray (ankle) is questionable. Furthermore, the Nuggets are playing their second game in two nights, while Dallas hasn’t played since Monday when they defeated the Nets 113-105.
For spread bets, it’s a different story, as 57% of the handle and 64% of the bets are on the Nuggets +2.5. Dallas is just 17-23 ATS this season, but the handle and bet percentage feel likely to move towards the Mavericks as we get closer to game time, as the news of Murray being questionable was just released this afternoon. The guard has missed two of his last five games and with many assuming Murray will be out tonight, most of the handle should move towards the Mavericks -2.5 as the day progresses.
As for the total, it’s a pretty one sided affair, with 76% of the handle and 78% of the bets for over 223.5 points. This is a decently low number for today’s NBA, and the Nuggets are a league-best 25-15 for the over this season, so the over easily being the more popular side for this contest makes a ton of sense.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top-five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Cooper Flagg for a triple-double (+2600)
- Jamal Murray 1st point scorer (+391)
- Jamal Murray 30+ points (+143)
- Aaron Gordon 1st point scorer (+670)
- Jamal Murray 20+ points (-556)
The most bet player prop for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook is Flagg for a triple-double at a +2600 price. While these odds are very enticing, this bet is very unlikely to hit and it’s rather surprising it’s so popular. The rookie has yet to record a triple-double this season. Flagg was two assists shy of his first triple-double two games ago, but he has only notched five double-doubles in 39 games this season, so a triple-double isn’t easily obtainable by any means.
Murray occupies three of the top-five best bet player props for this game despite being questionable. The first one is the guard to be the first point scorer at +391, which has merit if he suits up, as Murray has hit the first basket in seven of his 36 starts this season, which is easily the most of any player in this game.
The other two Murray props of this top five are him for 30+ points at +143 and for 20+ points at -556. Murray has scored at least 34 points in two of his five starts without Jokic and Murray is leading the Nuggets with a 29% usage rate with Jokic off the floor this season. Murray for 30+ points is possible, but with a stout Mavericks’ defense on the other side that ranks 10th in rating this season, you would have liked to see longer odds than just +143, especially with this being Denver’s second game in two nights. When playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set this season, Murray is averaging 2.3 PPG less than his average. Murray for 20+ points is obviously a way easier bet to hit, as he has scored at least 21 points in all five of his games without Jokic this season, but the -556 price reflects that this will be a very obtainable feat if Murray plays and attacking this prop doesn’t make much sense at these odds, unless it’s a leg of an SGP, where it’s much more logical.
Lastly, the fourth-most bet prop for this game is Gordon for the first basket at +670, which is a great longshot bet if you believe Murray will sit tonight. Gordon has only been the first point scorer in two of his 18 games this season, but with both Murray and Jokic off the floor, Gordon’s usage rises 4.0 percentage points to a team-high 28%.
