These are my picks against the spread in every NFL Divisional Round game, ranked by confidence level.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Divisional Round Confidence Picks
Texans +3 at Patriots
The Texans are coming off a big road win over the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. C.J. Stroud has now won a playoff game in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, with the win in Pittsburgh being his first-ever road playoff win. Stroud joins Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco as the only quarterbacks of the 21st century to win a playoff game in each of their first three seasons. However, Stroud has never made it past the Divisional Round. He will have to go on the road again and take down Drake Maye and the Patriots to finally break through that barrier.
Houston ranked second in the NFL in defensive EPA/play, defensive success rate and scoring defense during the regular season, and led the NFL in total defense. That unit demolished Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in the Wild Card Round and should give Drake Maye trouble in this matchup. Maye made some big throws against the Chargers, but he also threw an interception and had two fumbles, losing one of them. The Chargers’ offense was unable to take advantage of the turnovers, but the Texans should have more offensive success.
These teams faced off last regular season and Drake Maye struggled. Granted, that was a much worse Patriots team and Maye has taken a huge leap forward. However, Maye had one of the worst games of his career, which included two interceptions in a dominant Texans win. Stroud and a big portion of this Texans team have much more playoff experience than the core of this Patriots team. Houston hasn’t lost a game by more than three points since October 20th against the Seahawks. Defense wins championships, and I’ll back the league’s best defense to cover the 3-point spread on Sunday afternoon.
Rams -3.5 at Bears
The Rams had a real scare in the Wild Card Round against the Panthers. Despite being double-digit favorites, they needed a last-minute touchdown to get the win in Carolina. It just goes to show how hard it is to win on the road in the postseason, something they will need to do in Chicago if they want to make the NFC Championship Game. That being said, I’m backing the Rams to cover the 3.5-point spread. The Bears have relied on second-half comebacks all season, and last week was no different. They came back from 21-3 to beat the Packers in one of the best wins in recent franchise history. However, that is not a sustainable way to win in the playoffs. Since 2002, teams are 8-22 in their next playoff game following a 10+ point comeback.
The Bears poured every ounce of physical and emotional energy into that game to take down their division rivals. If they come out slow against this Rams team, they will be punished. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua should light up this Bears secondary, which ranks 21st in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback and 25th in dropback success rate. The Rams should move the ball with ease, and they can control a game once they take a lead with their great defense. This run for the Bears has been remarkable, but it comes to an end here against a superior Rams squad.
Seahawks -7 vs. 49ers
The Seahawks and 49ers face off for the third time this season, with a trip to the NFC Championship Game on the line. The 49ers won the first matchup of the season when they were at full health. This defense has sustained several major injuries this season, including to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, its two best players. Now, an injury to star tight end George Kittle gets added to that list. In the second matchup, the Seahawks’ defense was completely dominant, holding the 49ers to just three points. It will be even harder for Kyle Shanahan to find ways to beat that elite defense without his best pass catcher.
Seattle ranks second in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and third in defensive success rate. They can completely shut down an offense, as demonstrated in that Week 18 game against the 49ers. Against the 49ers in their current state, it’s all about stopping Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco is down to one serious offensive weapon, and while he’s a great one, Seattle is very familiar with how he is used. They should have a plan to stop McCaffrey and make Brock Purdy drop back and try to beat them by throwing to a mediocre group of receivers. As long as Sam Darnold can avoid turning the ball over, Seattle should control this game from start to finish and cover the large spread.
Bills +1.5 at Broncos
The Bills just pulled off a gutsy win over the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Now, they need to win another tough one in Denver to get to the AFC Championship Game. Josh Allen finally broke his road struggles in the postseason last week. That was Allen’s first-ever road win in the postseason. He has struggled going out west in the past, but that was always to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. From a quarterback matchup perspective, this is nowhere near as daunting. Mahomes always seemed impossible to beat in the postseason, while Allen is clearly a superior quarterback to Bo Nix. However, it is the Denver defense that is the scary unit to face for the Bills.
The Denver defense is fantastic, but not quite as dominant as last year’s unit. They ranked first in the NFL in defensive EPA/play for basically all of last season, but rank eighth in that metric this season. Denver has also faced a relatively easy slate of opposing offenses this season. They played four teams that rank in the top ten in the NFL in offensive EPA/play: the Cowboys, the Colts, the Packers and the Giants. In those games, they allowed 24 points to the Cowboys, 26 points to the Packers, 29 points to the Colts and 32 points to the Giants. Not to mention giving up 34 points to the Jaguars in Week 16, the team that the Bills just beat. While the Broncos’ defense is a great unit, they were unable to shut down any of the top-ten offenses that they faced. This will be their toughest test yet, as the Bills lead the NFL in offensive EPA/play.
Josh Allen is so hard for defenses to stop because of his incredible playmaking ability. No matter who the skill position players are around him, he finds ways to pick up first downs and get the ball in the end zone. That is why even elite defenses have struggled to stop him over the year. Allen is 30-10 SU in his career against defenses that allow 20 PPG or fewer, the best record of any quarterback this century. Allen should make the plays that Bo Nix isn’t capable of and win this game for the Buffalo Bills.
