We have something of a tank bowl during Wednesday’s NBA slate! Neither of the Brooklyn Nets or New Orleans Pelicans have anything close to a shot at the postseason, but the goals of growth are clear for young players on both sides while some more experienced assets work to boost their trade value ahead of next month’s deadline. This may not be the most high-stakes matchup on the board, but there’s still upside in betting markets if you know where to look.
Here’s a Nets vs. Pelicans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s game.
Nets vs. Pelicans prediction, preview
Brooklyn Nets
An 11-26 campaign may not pack the arena every night, but the Nets are doing just fine given where preseason expectations sat and the fact the organization drafted five players in the first round. Talent acquisition and testing is the name of the game, and a matchup against another struggling team gives an opportunity to break a four-game losing streak tonight.
At a glance, Brooklyn sits 25th in NETRTG at -5.3 and 27th in pace.
On offense, the Nets truly struggle with 108.7 PPG, the NBA’s lowest mark. The group has a 52.9% eFG% (25th) while shooting 54.2% on two-point attempts (19th) and 34.3% on threes (25th). They do take the sixth-most three-pointers of any team, though results from those are minimal given the efficiency. Brooklyn also ranks 19th in assists per game but 25th in AST/TO ratio. Defensively, the team looks somewhat better on the surface with 113.8 PPG allowed (10th). However, that may be more a result of the low pace and a lack of possessions for opponents rather than a defense on the upswing — the Nets allow an eFG% of 55.8% to opponents (26th). They also sit 27th in rebounds per game, 20th in blocks and 18th in steals.
Michael Porter Jr. leads the team with 25.9 PPG and 7.5 rebounds, shooting 49.1% from the field and 40.4% from three. This bounce-back campaign likely boosts his trade value before the impending deadline by a significant margin. He’s followed in scoring by guard Cam Thomas at 18.9 PPG. There are three other players averaging double-digits as well — Noah Clowney (13.2 PPG), Egor Demin (10.4) and Nic Claxton (13.1). Claxton in particular plays a large role as a starting big man, tying Porter Jr. with a team-high 7.5 boards.
The injury report lists Ziaire Williams (illness) and Haywood Highsmith (knee) out tonight.
New Orleans Pelicans
As for the Pelicans, the organization intended to compete for a postseason spot prior to the year but has repeatedly fallen short in trying to get there. At 9-33, they have the lowest winning percentage in the NBA and are just 1-9 across their last 10 games.
New Orleans has a NETRTG of -7.4, 26th in the league, and plays at the 28th-ranked pace.
The Pelicans average 114.9 PPG (21st), but don’t do so efficiently with a 52.4% eFG% (28th). They shoot 53.0% from two (26th) and 34.1% from three (26th), but do rank first in points in the paint and eighth in points from the fast break. New Orleans falls all the way to 26th in assists though with the 22nd-ranked AST/TO ratio as well. This group also sits 17th in rebounds per game with the ninth-best OREB%, so those second-chance points are a plus, as are the seventh-most steals. However, the Pels give up 122.4 PPG (28th) and allow a 56.7% eFG% (29th), so the defensive numbers leave a lot to be desired.
There are a pair of stars who excel for New Orleans in Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III. The former posts 22.3 PPG with 5.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists as one of the NBA’s premier paint scorers. The latter averages 21.9 PPG with 6.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists, hitting 38.9% of his threes as a versatile two-way threat. Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey average 15.6 and 15.1 PPG. A pair of rookies — Jeremiah Fears (14.3 PPG, 3.1 AST) and Derik Queen (12.8 PPG, 7.5 rebounds) — are also young bright spots.
For the Pels, Herb Jones (ankle) is the only player initially listed out.
Nets vs. Pelicans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Nets as 1.5-point road favorites tonight with -130 odds on the Moneyline. The Pelicans are +110 ML underdogs with the game total set at 228.5 points. Betting splits show 57% of straight wagers on New Orleans to win with 58% picking the over on the total.
If Williamson plays tonight coming off a back-to-back, the Pelicans should probably be favored instead of their opponent. He and Murphy are two of the three best players in this game and provide a versatile two-way punch, but the surrounding pieces and health are more of the reason New Orleans has faltered this season than anything else. There’s a notable lack of defense on this roster, but the Nets’ offense doesn’t pose much of a threat. While Porter Jr. gets his numbers and Cam Thomas does post some big games, neither play styles conducive to team ball and there aren’t reliable drivers of offense in terms of playmaking beyond a young Demin at point guard. The Pels can absolutely play the race to 130 and win the battle here if healthy.
Brooklyn also lacks a real defensive standout at big man besides Claxton, and the group will have to deal with one of the NBA’s best paint offenses. Williamson and Queen working as bruisers in the post could prove problematic for an opponent giving up 52.4 points in the paint per game (21st), and the Nets are also vulnerable in transition with 16.8 PPG allowed via fast breaks (26th). The Pels excel in both of those areas and can capitalize tonight given a clean slate of health, and their own defense won’t prove too much of a problem against a weak group.
Top pick: NO Pelicans ML (+110)
