If they’re bored with the midseason slog in Europe’s domestic leagues, football fans could hardly ask for a more exciting dose of international football than the final four games of the Africa Cup of Nations. Though the tournament is typically rife with upsets, four of the continent’s five best teams are still alive with a shot at the trophy, including its best team (Morocco) and its most in-form (Nigeria).
The Atlas Lions and the Super Eagles will face off in this afternoon’s second semifinal, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) in Rabat. The winner will advance to face either Senegal or Egypt in the final on Sunday in Rabat, while the loser will play a consolation match in Casablanca on Saturday.
Morocco is a +120 favorite to win in regular time (-165 to advance to the final) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Nigeria is +260 (+130 to advance). There are +215 odds that the teams will require extra time.
Nigeria vs. Morocco prediction, pick
The Atlas Lions have long been considered the favorites to win the tournament on their home soil, especially after becoming the first African team ever to make a World Cup semifinal and after winning the U-20 World Cup and the Arab Cup earlier in 2025. That their performance so far this tournament has largely been viewed as disappointing speaks to their sky-high expectations, given that they’ve dropped just two points and haven’t conceded a goal from open play yet. Meanwhile, the Super Eagles entered the tournament in need of some redemption after failing to qualify for this summer’s World Cup, and they’ve certainly been convincing, throttling hapless defense after hapless defense en route to the semifinals. Morocco has the lofty standing and a raucous home crowd, and Nigeria has the pedigree as a three-time tournament winner. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either of these teams lift the trophy come next Sunday.
For the Super Eagles, it’s all about the attack. In Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen, Nigeria might well have the best striker in all of Africa, and it could easily be the Super Eagles, not DR Congo, fighting for a World Cup place in March if Osimhen wasn’t removed at halftime of the continental playoff final. The 27-year-old has been dominant this tournament, smashing home four goals, and Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman has arguably been even more impressive, adding four assists to his three goals. Thanks to its brilliant attacking duo, Nigeria has scored 14 goals — three more than any other side — and it has also averaged the second-most shots on target per 90 minutes and the third-most goals per shot on target. The Super Eagles have allowed four goals, which all came in the group stage, but they’ve still done a good job preventing chances, allowing just five total shot attempts (none on target) in the knockout stage and recording 82 combined tackles and interceptions. They’re more than capable of building from the back, as each of their defenders ranks among the leaders in several attacking categories, and they’ve been tackled or intercepted the fewest times of any remaining team. Nigeria’s only weak link is goalie Stanley Nwabili, who’s stopped only two of the four shots on target he’s faced.
One goal was enough for the Atlas Lions to beat Tanzania in the Round of 16, but it might not be against the Super Eagles. That’ll place Morocco’s emphasis more squarely on its attack, which has only scored nine goals. Five of them have come from Brahim Díaz, who’s currently in position for the Golden Boot, and three others have come from Ayoub El Kaabi, who smashed home two bicycle kicks in the group stage. Every other Atlas Lion has been mediocre in the attack, as they attempted just nine shots in the quarterfinal win over Cameroon and rank dead last in on-target percentage and goals per shot of the remaining teams. Defensively, though, Morocco has been dominant, as it last conceded from open play in March 2025 and has subjected Yassine Bounou to just three shots on target all tournament. That qualifier against Niger was also the last time that the Atlas Lions have conceded at all with Achraf Hakimi in the lineup, as the Paris Saint-Germain star missed the Mali draw with an ankle sprain. Osimhen is by far the biggest challenge that the attacking-oriented wingback has had to mark in defense this tournament, but Hakimi is an equally nightmarish matchup for Alex Iwobi and Bruno Onyemaechi. Bounou, long considered one of the world’s best goalkeepers, is a nightmare for anyone, and he has a history of stepping up for the national team.
It’s hard to imagine Nigeria not scoring, even against a defense as elite as Morocco’s. With the exception of the Indomitable Lions, the Atlas Lions haven’t faced any particularly dangerous attacks so far this competition, as their second-strongest opponent, Mali, is a more defensive-oriented team. Morocco’s defense might not be quite as good as its run through the tournament has suggested. By the same token, though, the Super Eagles’ back line probably isn’t as strong as it has looked, either, because Nigeria also hasn’t faced an attack as strong as the Atlas Lions’, and Nwabili is a real problem in between the sticks. This game likely won’t get to penalties, but if it does, Morocco will advance to set up the final against Senegal that global football fans deserve.
