The Santa Clara Broncos (13-4) and No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (16-1) are set to face off on Thursday night, going head-to-head in Spokane. The WCC showdown will tip off at 11:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
The Bulldogs are 15.5-point favorites at home with -1450 Moneyline odds and the total has been set at 166.5 points. Here is a preview of the Jesuit vs. Jesuit matchup featuring odds and lines fromĀ DraftKings Sportsbook.
Santa Clara at Gonzaga Preview, Prediction
Santa Clara Preview
The Broncos started the season with a six-game winning streak, taking care of business against Cal Poly Humboldt, McNeese State, Idaho State and Louisiana. That stretch also included a road win over Xavier and a home win against Nevada. Saint Louis snapped Santa Clara’s hot streak with a one-point win in the Acrisure Series, but the Broncos bounced back against Minnesota and Utah Tech. Santa Clara proceeded to lose to New Mexico by 27, Arizona State by three and Loyola Chicago by two, breaking that up with a three-point win over North Texas. The Broncos are currently on a four-game winning streak to open WCC play, during which they have bested Oregon State, Portland, Pepperdine and San Diego State.
Guard Christian Hammond, fresh off redshirting his sophomore season, is averaging 17.0 points per game while shooting 41.4% from deep. Senior forward Elijah Mahi is Santa Clara’s second-leading scorer at 14.9 points per game, also shooting 36.5% on 5.0 three-point attempts a night. The Broncos have six other players averaging between 6.9 and 8.6 points per game. Redshirt freshman Allen Graves and German forward Jake Ensminger are their team’s leading rebounders at 6.6 and 6.3 rebounds per game. 7-foot-1 center Bukky Oboye averages the most blocks per game on the Broncos with 1.4.
Santa Clara has the 18th-lowest free throw rate in the country, per Bart Torvik. On a per game basis, they rank No. 38 in steals and No. 50 in blocks per game, on top of ranking No. 19 in three-point attempts. Still, Santa Clara ranks No. 237 with their 32.8% three-point percentage.
In the latest KenPom ratings, the Broncos slot in at No. 55 in adjusted net efficiency. Santa Clara boasts the No. 49 opponent-adjusted offense and No. 91 opponent-adjusted defense.
Gonzaga Preview
Coach Mark Few once again built out a gauntlet non-conference schedule for his Bulldogs this season. Aside from their expected wins over Texas Southern, Southern Utah, North Florida and Campbell, Gonzaga also notched double-digit victories over Oklahoma, No. 23 Creighton, Arizona State, No. 8 Alabama, Maryland, No. 18 Kentucky and No. 25 UCLA. Their only loss during that whole stretch came by 40 points to No. 7 Michigan in Las Vegas. Before they opened WCC action with wins against Pepperdine, San Diego, Seattle and Loyola Marymount, the Bulldogs also beat Oregon by nine in Portland.
The frontcourt duo of Braden Huff and Graham Ike has powered Gonzaga’s offense this season. The former is averaging 18.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, while the latter is averaging 16.8 and 8.5. Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster is the Bulldogs’ next-most effective scorer with his 11.9 points per game. Spanish freshman Mario Saint-Supery, Arizona State transfer Adam Miller and Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters are the source of Gonzaga’s perimeter offense, hitting 40.4% of their 10.8 combined three-point attempts per game.
Gonzaga takes and makes the most two-pointers per game in the country. They are also top-75 when it comes to offensive rebounds and steals per game, not to mention how they rank No. 5 in defensive rebounds and No. 7 in assists. On the other end of the floor, the Bulldogs are limiting their opponents to the 59th-worst two-point percentage and 28th-worst three-point percentage. Their 91.6 points per game and 67.4 points against per game rank No. 11 and No. 51, respectively.
The Bulldogs rank No. 6 in adjusted net efficiency, per KenPom, coming in at No. 5 on offense and No. 11 on defense.
Santa Clara at Gonzaga Pick, Best Bet
The most impressive wins on Santa Clara’s resume are over McNeese State, Nevada, and Minnesota. Although the Broncos had a 12-point average margin of victory in those contests, the Cowboys, Wolf Pack and Golden Gophers aren’t even in the KenPom top 70. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are the cream of the crop in almost any ranking system. Santa Clara is 0-2 against Quad 1 opponents, which Gonzaga comfortably is.
Santa Clara only lost by one to Saint Louis at a neutral site, but it’s hard not to think back to their 27-point loss to New Mexico considering that was also on the road.
Through 17 games this season, the Bulldogs have won by 16-plus points eight times. They are 2-for-4 against their four WCC opponents, none of whom even rank inside the KenPom top-100. Gonzaga has played eight KenPom top-100 teams, going 7-1 but only covering a 15.5-point spread twice in that sample. Their efficient perimeter defense probably won’t shake Santa Clara too much, either, since the Broncos thrive on simply jacking up a bunch of threes.
The Broncos have defeated the Bulldogs in back-to-back seasons after going 13 years between wins in the head-to-head series. They even picked up a win in Spokane last January, emerging with a 103-99 upset. That required 11 threes and 55 points from Tyeree Bryan and Adama Bal, who have since transferred to Texas Tech and graduated, respectively. The burden is now on Hammond to pour it in and Ensminger and Thierry Darlan to get hot from beyond the arc.
