New Mexico coach Jason Eck watched his team turn the ball over three times and commit 16 accepted penalties at Hawaii, then recover to win anyway. The Lobos’ first two touchdowns required drives of 75 and 80 yards. They did eventually earn their way downfield. Saturday’s Homecoming game at University Stadium should demand much cleaner football against North Dakota State. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the New Mexico Lobos and the North Dakota State Bison.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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New Mexico vs. NDSU prediction, preview
Lobos quarterback Toa Fa’avae ran for 77 yards at Hawaii, with running backs Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley adding 90 and 87. Humphrey broke the game open with a 49-yard touchdown. Eck can make a defense tackle several runners, including the quarterback, but the Bison have allowed only 3.3 yards per rush this season. Fa’avae will have to complete throws when North Dakota State stops those early carries.
He threw for a meager 59 yards on ten attempts at Hawaii, with two interceptions. Receiver Bailen George threw the other 35 passing yards to his own quarterback. Fa’avae has passed for 249 yards against UTEP, so Eck has seen him accomplish considerably more through the air. North Dakota State has allowed just 5.6 yards per pass attempt through seven games. The Bison should make his receivers work much harder for their catches.
New Mexico also loses quarterback James Laubstein, who handled short-yardage and goal-line work before suffering a serious leg injury at Hawaii. Eck has to replace a finisher against a front already capable of contesting the handoffs. Bison safety Darius Givance is out. Coach Tim Polasek flagged New Mexico’s misdirection and receivers escaping coverage when Fa’avae scrambles. George caught a 68-yard pass at New Mexico State. New Mexico can still break a possession open if Fa’avae gets the throw there.
Bison quarterback Nathan Hayes completed 19 of 25 passes for 153 yards against Nevada, finding receiver Jackson Williams five times for 58. Running back Myles Mitchell gained 49 yards on 13 carries; Hayes added 42 on eight. North Dakota State finished touchdown marches of 71, 77 and 63 yards. Polasek expects running back DJ Scott back at full health.
NDSU vs. New Mexico pick, best bet
New Mexico has allowed only 3.0 yards per rush this season. Hayes threw three interceptions at UNLV, where he passed for 124 yards and the Bison scored seven points. Scott’s return improves the backfield, but Hayes still has to complete difficult throws if the Lobos stop the early handoffs. New Mexico should force enough of those possessions to end with a kick.
Air Force scored 32 against North Dakota State, and Fa’avae’s running deserves weight against a defense that has already struggled to contain a mobile offense. Polasek expects Eck to find another runner for Laubstein’s package. Fa’avae can run, but Eck still has to replace an established finisher. Returning from Honolulu, New Mexico should need a patient night from its runners. Hayes and Fa’avae face too many difficult passing downs for a game beyond 40.5; I prefer the under at even money.
Best bet: Under 40.5 (+100).
Projected score: New Mexico 20, North Dakota State 16.
Best Bet: New Mexico vs. NDSU u40.5 total points scored (+100)
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