Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET, the UCLA Bruins will face off with the Iowa Hawkeyes as a part of Saturday’s college basketball slate. Both teams are off to a strong start to the season, and this will be a notable measuring stick matchup for each side.
Looking at the odds, Iowa enters as a 6.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 137.5 points. UCLA holds +240 odds of pulling off the outright upset.
UCLA at Iowa prediction, preview
The UCLA Bruins are off to a 10-3 start to the season. Their three losses have come at the hands of Arizona, California and Gonzaga, while they enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. Their most impressive wins have come against Washington and Oregon thus far. UCLA is 6-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in eight of its 13 matchups.
Tyler Bilodeau headlines the production for the Bruins. The 6-foot-9 forward is averaging 19.0 points and 5.2 rebounds while shooting 46.7% from beyond the three-point arc. Skyy Clark adds 14.2 points per game while shooting a Big 10-leading 49.3% from the perimeter. New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent is starting to find his footing after some tough shooting to start the season, posting averages of 12.6 points and 6.6 assists, while Eric Dailey Jr. adds 10.6 points and a team-high 5.6 rebounds per game. Trent Perry, Xavier Booker and Jamar Brown also play a notable role in the rotation.
As a team, UCLA is averaging 81.7 points per game, which ranks 98th in the country. It ranks 55th in offensive rating, 51st in team field-goal percentage, 14th in three-point percentage and 84th in assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 68.9 points per game, which ranks 87th in the country. The Bruins rank 104th in defensive rating, 122nd in opponent field-goal percentage and 86th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Iowa Hawkeyes sit in 25th in the AP Poll after an 11-2 start to the season. Their pair of losses came against Michigan State and Iowa State, with both programs ranking in the top seven in the country at the time of their matchup. Iowa’s best win came over Ole Miss thus far this season, and it has defeated Xavier and Maryland as well. It is 10-3 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in seven of its 13 games.
Bennett Stirtz is the Hawkeyes’ star, posting averages of 17.1 points and 5.2 assists while shooting 41.4% on three-point attempts. Alvaro Folgueiras and Tavion Banks each add 9.5 points per game while combining for 8.2 rebounds per game collectively. Cam Manyawu is posting 8.8 points and a team-high 4.6 rebounds per game, while Cooper Koch, Isaia Howard, Tate Sage and Kael Combs each play a role in the rotation.
The Hawkeyes are averaging 81.2 points per game, which ranks 108th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. They rank 354th in field-goal attempts, but second in field-goal percentage. This is also evident at the three-point line as they rank 281st in three-point volume but 17th in three-point percentage. Iowa also ranks 14th in offensive rating. On the defensive side of the ball, the Hawkeyes are holding teams to just 60.1 points per game, which ranks fourth in the country. They rank 22nd in defensive rating, 115th in opponent field-goal percentage, second in opponent field-goal attempts allowed, 80th in opponent three-point percentage, 11th in opponent three-point volume, and allow the fewest rebounds to opponents in the country.
UCLA at Iowa pick, best bet
This is an interesting matchup with Iowa completely content playing at a slow pace and making it a half-court battle. UCLA prefers to get out and attack a little more, although Mick Cronin’s group has shown it can win a defensive grind-it-out type game as well. Both teams enter on a three-game winning streak, and UCLA is a bit more battle-tested on the season overall.
Iowa having the home-court advantage is a factor, but I am backing the road team and taking UCLA to keep this close and cover the 6.5-point spread. The Bruins have covered the spread in four of their last five games and still have plenty of untapped potential as a team. Donovan Dent has begun to find his stride as a playmaker, but he is shooting just 39.6% from the floor and 10.0% on three-point attempts. This is not a trend I expect to continue for last year’s Mountain West Player of the Year, who shot 40.9% from beyond the three-point arc in the previous season.
While this is not a defense that will ease the path for getting back on track, there are more ways that UCLA is capable of scoring the basketball. In contrast, if the Bruins can neutralize Bennett Stirtz, Iowa’s entire offensive system begins to erode. His 17.1 points and 5.2 assists each lead the team by nearly double, and outside of Stirtz’s Big Ten-leading 36.0 minutes per game, no player on the team is playing more than 25.6 minutes per night.
Expect UCLA to throw multiple different matchups at the Iowa star throughout the matchup to disrupt him. Iowa does not have the necessary offensive firepower to put UCLA away, and expect it to keep this a battle throughout. Look for the Bruins to lean on their more well-rounded roster and cover the 6.5-point spread in a game that could have some upset potential despite the success Iowa has had at home thus far.
