For the second consecutive season, the NFC South will come down to the final day. Unlike 2024, however, the 2025 NFC South will be decided by a direct battle, with the winner of Saturday’s 4:30 p.m. ET clash between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers most likely winning the division and claiming the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs. The Atlanta Falcons, who are on a three-game winning streak after upsetting the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night, could still play spoiler by beating the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, which would clinch the division for the Panthers regardless of Saturday’s result.
Either way, it’s win-and-in for Carolina and win-and-maybe-in for Tampa Bay, which is looking to extend its division-winning streak to five seasons, the longest such active streak in football. The stakes are as high as it gets. The winner will host an NFC West team — either the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, or Los Angeles Rams — in the first round. All three are difficult matchups, though ESPN’s Football Power Index suggests that the 49ers are the weakest of the three.
The Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 43.5. Tampa Bay is -142 on the Moneyline, and the Panthers are +120.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the marquee clash with $300,000 in total prize money. Below, I’ve laid out my strategy, with two Captain’s Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (CAR @ TB).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Mike Evans ($15,300 CP) – Baker Mayfield ($15,900 CP) obviously won’t throw to Evans enough for him to record his 12th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season (Evans would require 666 receiving yards, more than double the single-game record), but he should still lean on his top target whenever he has the opportunity. Even at his advanced age, Evans remains one of the league’s most reliable yard-eaters, as he demonstrated with a six-catch, 132-yard (22.2-FPT) effort in his first game back from injury in Week 15. Though his raw production has waned with 31 yards in each of the past two weeks, he found the back of the end zone in each week to remain fantasy-viable.
Carolina’s defense isn’t exactly the easiest matchup in the world — it has allowed the 11th-fewest FPTS per game and the 10th-fewest yards to wide receivers — but Evans had 14.1 FPTS against the same unit just two weeks ago and has historically had some of his best performances against the Panthers, including 16 catches, 215 yards, and three scores (58.5 FPTS) across their two matchups last season. Plus, Carolina gets pressure at some of the lowest rates in football, which should allow his deeper route tree to develop. The Panthers operate primarily in zone coverage, and Evans averages more yards per route run against such schemes.
Tetairoa McMillan ($12,600 CP) – McMillan cemented himself as an inner-circle Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate in Week 16 against the Buccaneers, when he dashed them for six catches, 73 yards, and a score (19.3 FPTS). While the Arizona product hasn’t been incredibly consistent week-to-week — he had just one catch for five yards (1.5 FPTS) the following week against the Seahawks — he’s clearly talented and poses matchup nightmares for Tampa Bay all over the field. With 71 yards, he’d reach the 1,000-yard threshold, a number only one Carolina rookie receiver (Kelvin Benjamin in 2014) has reached.
It’s not like the Buccaneers’ secondary is of Seattle’s quality. Overall, while Tampa Bay has allowed the 16th-fewest FPTS to opposing wideouts, it has gotten worse as the season has gone along, allowing 244.1 passing yards per game after its Week 9 bye and just 228.8 in the eight games prior. If Jamel Dean, who ranks ninth among 112 qualified corners by Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, can’t play through his shoulder injury, the Buccaneers’ best outside corner could be Kindle Vildor, who ranked 81st among 122 qualified corners in 2022, the last season in which he played enough snaps to qualify.
FLEX Plays
Bryce Young ($9,600) – I’m not 100% positive that I’m sold on Young as a true franchise quarterback or a weekly fantasy asset, but he doesn’t have to be on Saturday. Though a 63.2% completion percentage, 2,745 passing yards, and an 87.0 passer rating are pretty mediocre, he throws an accurate ball and he can never be discounted in the run game. He completed 21 of his 32 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns and added another four carries for 20 yards (17.6 FPTS) against Tampa Bay two weeks ago, and he’s thrown five touchdowns and just one interception against the Buccaneers in his career.
Tampa Bay’s secondary just isn’t any good, especially if Dean sits. The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most FPTS to opposing quarterbacks this season, in part due to their weakness against wideouts and in part because they’ve conceded the sixth-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns to the position. Also, while their blitz-heavy scheme might work to contain Young as a passer — he’s been the fourth-worst among qualified quarterbacks — he’s been among the league’s best runners when blitzed. Young has also been among the league’s best deep passers, and Tampa Bay tends to get beaten deep, allowing the ninth-most 20-plus-yard throws.
Jalen McMillan ($5,600) – McMillan was one of the league’s breakout stars last season after Chris Godwin Jr. ($8,200)‘s season-ending leg injury, as in the final five weeks of the 2024 season, he accumulated 24 catches, 316 yards, and seven touchdowns (99.1 FPTS). He was expected to play a major role in the Buccaneers’ offense again in 2025, but he suffered a severe neck sprain and fractured vertebrae during the preseason, holding him out until Week 15. After a few quiet weeks, he starred in Week 17, catching seven of his team-leading nine targets for 114 yards (21.4 FPTS).
As a versatile player capable of lining up both in the slot and outside, McMillan should be on the field for the majority of Tampa Bay’s snaps, even with Evans, Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka ($7,600) all healthy. Plus, his versatility should allow him to take advantage of easier matchups, including snaps against Jaycee Horn, a two-time Pro Bowler who’s struggled through a mediocre season in coverage, ranking just 57th by PFF’s coverage grades and allowing six touchdowns. He also posted more average separation (3.3 yards) last season than any of Evans (1.9), Egbuka (2.6), or Godwin (2.8), making himself a more attractive target for Mayfield.
Fades
Emeka Egbuka ($7,600) – I’ve already chosen two Buccaneers wide receivers, so that just doesn’t leave much room for Egbuka, who’s likely to lose his lead in receiving yards among rookie receivers to Tetairoa McMillan. The 19th overall pick has clearly been trending downwards, recording double-digit FPTS just twice since the bye, and one of those games came without Godwin, Evans, and Jalen McMillan. His snap share has decreased, from an average of 82.8% prior to Godwin’s latest return to just 73.8% ever since, and he’s struggled with drops, recording six in a six-week span. Plus, Egbuka lines up more frequently in the slot than Evans or McMillan, and Panthers slot corner Chau Smith-Wade has had a pretty solid season, allowing just one touchdown as the nearest coverage defender.
THE OUTCOME
The writing is on the wall for Tampa Bay’s division title streak. Since their bye, the Buccaneers have gone just 1-7, with the only win a narrow 20-17 affair against an even more atrocious Arizona Cardinals team. Arguably the team’s two most important players, Dean and right tackle Tristan Wirfs, might not play, and the slumping Mayfield is banged up. Tampa Bay just made Quinn Ewers look like a star.
Carolina isn’t much better, but at least it has beaten some tough teams (the Rams and the Green Bay Packers, for instance) while losing in a fairly tight affair against San Francisco. The Panthers’ run game might be slightly less potent than usual with Rico Dowdle less than 100%, but their passing game and defense should be good enough to clinch their first division title since 2015.
