The North Carolina Tar Heels are hosting the Florida State Seminoles tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET in an ACC contest. UNC has an all-time record of 35-11 against FSU, and the two teams have faced off each year since 1999. The Tar Heels have won the last six meetings between the two programs, with the Seminoles’ last victory in the series coming in March 2021.
UNC has started the season 12-1 and is currently ranked No. 12 in the latest AP Poll. Meanwhile, FSU has a 7-6 record on the year but has won its previous two games. On DraftKings Sportsbook, North Carolina is a -13.5-point favorite with the game’s over/under sitting at 165.5. Here is my best bet for tonightās Florida State vs. UNC matchup.
Florida State vs. North Carolina (7:00 p.m. ET)
North Carolina doesn’t just have one of the best freshmen in the country with Caleb Wilson, but one of the overall best players in the sport. Wilson is averaging 19.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. He has also scored 20-plus points in his last five games and has reached that mark in nine of 13 contests.
Via KenPom, UNC is ranked 22nd overall, and FSU is 110th. The Seminoles have the 117th-highest offensive rating and the 115th-best defensive rating. From November 28 to December 16, Florida State lost five consecutive games by at least 15 points in each one. They scored 87 and 96 in their last two games, but that was against lower-level competition. During their losing streak, they scored 73 or fewer four times.
Florida State has three players in double digits per contest, with Robert McCray V leading the way with 13.5. Chauncey Wigins (12 PPG), Lajae Jones (11.7 PPG), and Kove MaGee (10.5 PPG) are the Seminoles’ next three top scorers. They are a guard-heavy team and could struggle against North Carolina, which excels in the paint.
FSU actually averages more points per game than UNC does, but the Tar Heels are the more efficient team. North Carolina has one of the most dominant frontcourts in the country, with Wilson alongside Henri Veesaar, who is averaging 16.8 points and 9.2 boards. UNC has won four of its last five games by at least 14 points and has won eight of its 12 contests this season by more than 13.5 points. With four of Florida State’s last five losses coming by over 13.5 points, it is hard to back them until they show more consistency against elite teams.
