The Atlanta Falcons have won two straight, but at 6-9, are not in playoff contention, so motivation could be lacking. That said, this is a primetime game in Atlanta and the Falcons may want to put their best foot forward for the home crowd in the second-to-last game of the season.
As for the Los Angeles Rams, they are firmly entrenched in the playoffs and battling for seeding. Seattle sits atop the NFC West and is the No. 1 seed in the NFC at 13-3. There is still a chance that San Francisco could win the NFC West since it plays Seattle in Week 18 and has a better division record. That assumes that the 49ers defeat the Chicago Bears on Sunday night.
Regardless, I’m expecting both teams to play their guys. Davante Adams is doubtful for the Rams due to a hamstring injury.
The Rams have the fifth-highest EPA per carry on offense and have averaged 4.6 yards per carry while scoring 17 rushing touchdowns. The Rams have the third-highest EPA per dropback, as Matthew Stafford has thrown for a league-leading 40 touchdowns with 4,179 yards and only five interceptions.
On defense, the Rams have allowed the ninth-lowest EPA per carry and 4.1 yards per carry. The seven rushing touchdowns are the fewest allowed in the league. Only the Seahawks have allowed single-digit rushing touchdowns as well. Against the pass, Los Angeles has the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback with 23 touchdowns and a 63.5 completion percentage allowed. The unit has racked up 15 interceptions and 41 sacks, tied for the ninth-most. The pressure rate is eighth-highest.
Atlanta has the 10th-lowest EPA per carry on offense, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 16 touchdowns. Bijan Robinson has flashed at times, but the Falcons have forgotten he’s existed too often. Through the air, Atlanta has the 12th-lowest EPA per dropback with only 17 passing touchdowns and a 61.1 completion percentage. Falcons quarterbacks have only thrown seven interceptions, tied for the third-fewest, and been sacked 22 times this season, tied for the second-lowest.
On defense, the rush defense has allowed the 11th-highest EPA per carry with 4.5 yards per carry. The unit has only allowed 11 rushing touchdowns, though, which is tied for the third-fewest. The pass defense has allowed the 19th-highest EPA per dropback with 24 touchdowns and a 62.7 completion percentage allowed. The unit has racked up 12 interceptions and 50 sacks, the second-most. The pressure rate is seventh-highest.
DraftKings Sportsbook has LAR -7 over ATL with the total at 49.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (LAR @ ATL)
Captain’s Picks
Puka Nacua ($18,300 CP): Nacua is tied for the fourth-most targets in the league at 145, despite missing almost two games. He’s garnered double-digit targets eight times. Prior to the injury, Nacua put up at least 24 FPTS in five straight games with a high of 39 FPTS. After the injury, he exceeded 20 FPTS only once in five games. It looks like Nacua is healthy now as he’s put up over 30 FPTS in each of the last three games with a monster 49.5 FPTS performance last week on 16 targets. Adams was out for that one and is unlikely to play in this one, so 15+ targets should be on the menu once again. The volume is locked in, providing a high floor. The only questions are if he scores touchdowns and hits a ceiling outcome.
UTIL Plays
Matthew Stafford ($10,800): Stafford leads the league with 40 touchdowns. He’s only had two games with less than two touchdowns while putting up three games with at least four touchdowns, including a high of five touchdowns. Stafford has no rushing equity so the passing touchdowns are a must, and he should be flinging it around plenty in this one. Stafford has put up double-digit FPTS in every contest this season with nine over 20 FPTS and two over 30 FPTS.
Blake Corum ($4,600): Over the last four games, Corum has been a factor for the Rams. Kyren Williams is still atop the depth chart, but in two of those games, Williams only garnered snap shares in the low-50 percent range. In the other two contests, the snap shares were 67% and 71%. Despite that, Corum has finished with double-digit FPTS in all of those games with a high of 29.1 FPTS. Granted, that was in a blowout, but the most important number is the red zone opportunities. Corum has received at least two in each of the last four games with a total of 10. Williams has 16 over that span.
Kyle Pitts Sr. ($8,800): Pitts and Cousins look to have finally found a comfort zone with each other. Over the last four games, Pitts has garnered eight, 10, 12 and nine targets, good for at least 15 FPTS in all with a high of 48.6 FPTS. Sure, Drake London is back but he’s likely not 100%. That said, London could take some of the defensive attention away from Pitts. Pitts is a matchup nightmare and it finally looks like something has clicked for him in Atlanta. The Rams will likely be scoring plenty of points in this one, which should have the Falcons tilting more toward the air.
Fades
Bijan Robinson ($11,800): It scares me to fade Robinson, especially since he’s a dual-threat and has put up close to 30 FPTS in four of the last six games. He’s also received 11 targets in each of the last two games. That said, the Rams have been one of the better defenses against the run and it’s difficult to fit Robinson and Nacua comfortably into a lineup.
THE OUTCOME
The Rams are firing on all cylinders offensively and I’m expecting plenty of points in this contest. As for the Falcons, I think they will keep up for a bit, but a few mistakes from Cousins will cost them in the end.
Final Score: Rams 34, Falcons 23
