Both the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are 11-4 on the season. Da Bears sit atop the NFC North. If Green Bay loses, then Chicago wins the division outright. But Chicago still has something to play for as it is currently the second seed in the NFC, but Philadelphia is only game back while the 49ers and Rams currently sit in the fifth and sixth seeds with 11-4 records as well.
The NFC West is nuts. Seattle leads the division with a 12-3 record with the 49ers and Rams one game back. It seems like yesterday when the NFC West champ had a losing record. Anyways, San Francisco will be highly motivated.
Chicago has gotten it done on offense via the running game, employing the Thunder and Lightning of Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift. The pass rate is 26th while the EPA per carry is fourth-highest. The Bears are averaging 4.9 yards per carry and have scored 17 times on the ground. The passing attack has produced the 12th-highest EPA per dropback with 24 touchdowns, but the completion percentage is only 57.9%, second only to the 57.5% of Cleveland. That’s gross.
On defense, opponents are averaging a whopping 5.0 yards per carry on the ground and have scored 12 times. The pass defense has been better, allowing the 12th-lowest EPA per dropback, but much of that is due to the league-leading 21 interceptions. Chicago has allowed 28 passing touchdowns. The pressure rate is 22nd while the 31 sacks are tied for the sixth-fewest.
San Francisco has struggled running the ball, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns. The EPA per carry is 12th-lowest. George Kittle has missed games and his absence has negatively affect the rushing attack. He is questionable for this one. The passing attack has been good, with either Brock Purdy or Mac Jones throughout the season. The EPA per dropback is seventh-highest with a 69.1% completion percentage.
Defensively, injuries have decimated the 49ers and severely affected their performance. The unit is allowing the 12th-highest EPA per carry with 4.1 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns. The pass defense is where things have suffered the most, posting the seventh-highest EPA per dropback with 27 touchdowns and a 68.4 completion percentage. The pressure rate is second-lowest and the 18 sacks are the fewest by a wide margin.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (CHI @ SF)
TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears ($2,800)
This game has the second-highest total on Sunday at 52.5, so points are expected to be scored. As much as the Bears want to ground and pound, Chicago may have to tilt towards the air in this one. If so, Kmet should be involved in the passing game. He’s playing around 75% of the snaps, and while Colston Loveland has more targets on the season with 58, Kmet has 42 and garnered at least three targets in each of the last four games.
RB Brian Robinson, San Francisco ($3,400)
Christian McCaffrey is the undisputed running back for the 49ers, playing around 80% of the snaps. Robinson has been in the 15% range recently, so robust volume won’t be likely, but he’s going to spell CMC and has received at least five carries in each of the last seven games with eight carries in four of those contests. The weakness of the Bears defense is the run defense, so Robinson could find some success in the limited number of carries. What if CMC gets injured or he needs a rest at the goal line?
WR Kendrick Bourne, San Franciso 49ers ($5,000)
Last week with Ricky Pearsall out, Bourne played 70% of the snaps and garnered five targets. Pearsall is questionable while George Kittle is also on the injury report. Kittle was tied with CMC with eight targets last week, and especially if neither of he or Pearsall play, there’s plenty of work available.
