The Philadelphia Eagles have a chance to make history on Saturday night, as a win would secure the NFC East title. It would mark the first time that the division has been won by the same team in consecutive seasons since the Eagles also did so in 2001-04.
Seeking to stop them will be the team that Philadelphia beat in the NFC Championship Game to advance to the Super Bowl last season, the Washington Commanders. The Commanders entered the season looking like the Eagles’ strongest challengers in the division, but disaster after disaster has befallen them, and despite snapping an eight-game losing streak last weekend with a win over the New York Giants, they’re just 4-10 and have long been eliminated from the postseason.
As a result, Philadelphia is a seven-point road favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to clinch the division on Saturday, with the point total set to 44.5. The Eagles are -345 on the Moneyline, and Washington is +275. The game will begin at 5 p.m. ET.
In order to help spice up the action, DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for each of Saturday’s games, with the earlier contest paying out $100,000 to first place. In order to help you out, I’ve provided two Captain’s Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (PHI @ WAS).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jalen Hurts ($16,500 CP) – The Super Bowl MVP has had a wildly inconsistent last couple of weeks. He was the reason Philadelphia lost to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14, completing just 21 of his 40 passes and throwing a career-high four interceptions (5.4 FPTS), including one inside the end zone with the Eagles trailing by three in overtime. He was then the best player on the field the following week against the Las Vegas Raiders, completing 12 of his 15 passes for 175 yards and three scores (22.9 FPTS) before getting shut down because of the lopsided scoreline. All in all, he has 18 or more FPTS in three of his last four games, which would justify his status as the most expensive player on the slate.
This Commanders defense is much closer to the Raiders’ than it is to the Chargers’. In fact, Washington has allowed the fourth-most FPTS per game to opposing quarterbacks — including the fifth-most passing yards and the second-most touchdowns — a significantly worse mark than Las Vegas’. Plus, while the Commanders have been okay on the ground against opposing quarterbacks, that’s more a function of volume than of efficiency, and they’ve allowed the sixth-most yards per carry overall. Washington also gets pressure at the ninth-lowest rate, and Hurts’ passer rating is 47.7 points when he has a clean pocket.
Terry McLaurin ($14,100 CP) – Perhaps it’s chalky picking the most expensive Commander as another Captain’s Pick option, but this Washington offense is devoid of consistent weapons after Jayden Daniels ($15,000 CP) and Zach Ertz both went down for the season. Someone has to catch Marcus Mariota ($13,500 CP)‘s passes, and that could well be McLaurin, who’s just one season removed from setting the franchise record for single-season receiving touchdowns. Though he’s only recorded 409 yards and three scores this season while missing seven games with a severe quad strain (12.1 FPTS per game), he’s had 15.9 or more FPTS in two of his three games since returning. McLaurin and Deebo Samuel ($12,600 CP), who’s topped out at 11.1 FPTS in his three post-bye games, are basically Mariota’s only two wideouts.
Of course, going against Philadelphia’s secondary is never easy, as Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell demonstrated forcefully during last season’s run to the Super Bowl. Difficult doesn’t mean impossible, though, and in the Week 11 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, George Pickens had nine catches, 146 yards, and a touchdown (32.6 FPTS). That doesn’t mean McLaurin will see the same level of success, but for what it’s worth, McLaurin has generated more average separation than Pickens has. Plus, the Eagles run zone defense more frequently than they run man, and McLaurin has been the league’s eighth-highest graded receiver against zone coverage.
FLEX Plays
A.J. Brown ($9,800) – After this, I’ll have to start going with some cheaper options, given that picking Hurts as captain then Brown would only leave you with $5,925 per player, but Brown has been on quite the roll in the last four weeks. He started that stretch by recording 19 or more FPTS in three straight weeks, and while he only caught two passes for 41 yards against the Raiders last weekend, one of them found the end zone, making him fantasy-viable (12.1 FPTS). He’s been in much hotter form than his teammate DeVonta Smith ($8,800), who hasn’t had more than 16.9 FPTS in any of his six games since Philadelphia’s Week 9 bye, though Smith still leads the team overall in receiving yards.
Either wideout should be viable against the Commanders, who have allowed the ninth-most FPTS to opposing wide receivers, but I’m willing to splurge the extra $1,000 on Brown because of his recent form and because his specific matchup is better. Brown lines up almost solely on the outside, whereas Smith splits his snaps roughly evenly between the slot and the outside. Washington’s top-ranked outside corner, Mike Sainristil, has conceded 620 yards and seven touchdowns on 74 targets (good for a 106.8 passer rating). Meanwhile, the Commanders’ new slot corner, Noah Igbinoghene, has not allowed a touchdown in his 23 targets.
Ben Sinnott ($2,600) – There’s probably a reasonable chance that Sinnott doesn’t record any fantasy value, but for just $2,600, it’s worth the risk. He did have 4.6 FPTS last weekend against the Giants, hauling in his sole target for a 36-yard catch-and-run late in the fourth quarter to bring Washington into New York territory with a chance to seal the game with a score. More encouragingly, he appeared in a career-high 57.4% of the Commanders’ offensive snaps, fitting nicely into the void filled by Ertz’s season-ending injury. His highs tend to be high — two of his 10 career catches have gone for touchdowns — and he had a very successful college career at Kansas State, so he has the pedigree. As a recent second-round pick, Washington has more invested in him than it does in John Bates ($2,800) and should prioritize him.
To be fair, the Eagles have been excellent against opposing tight ends, limiting them to the third-fewest FPTS per game, but it’s hard to gather too much of anything from a sample size of 93 targets. It’s not like Philadelphia has been completely untouchable — Jake Ferguson went for 60 yards (11.1 FPTS) in Week 11, and the Chicago Bears’ Cole Kmet had 36 yards and a score (12.6 FPTS) the following week. As long as Sinnott avoids lining up against DeJean, he should be fine: linebacker Jihaad Campbell has regressed in coverage after a hot start to his rookie season, and Reed Blankenship has been the league’s second-worst qualified coverage safety after being one of the best last season.
Fades
Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($7,000) – Croskey-Merritt had a strong performance in the Commanders’ win over the Giants, turning his 18 carries into 96 yards and a score (15.6 FPTS), but it was his first double-digit fantasy performance since Week 5, when he recorded 31 FPTS in a win over Los Angeles. All in all, the rookie has slowed down significantly after a hot start to his career, averaging 6.6 yards per carry across the first five weeks and just 3.6 yards per carry ever since. With Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($7,400) healthy again and Mariota, Samuel, and Jeremy McNichols ($4,000) also sure take some carries, Washington operates too much of a committee approach for me to feel comfortable starting Croskey-Merritt.
Raw numbers also oversell the Eagles’ struggles in run defense. Philadelphia has allowed the 11th-most FPTS per game to running backs, but most of the damage came against the Bears, and it has otherwise limited opposing backs to less than 100 total yards as many times (four) as it has allowed 150-plus yards. Plus, Jalen Carter’s absence might help: he’s a good-to-elite pass rusher and a terrible run defender, so his absence might make Washington more inclined to pass instead of run. It might not be a total coincidence that the Eagles allowed a season-low 46 yards to Las Vegas last week.
THE OUTCOME
Next week’s game against the Buffalo Bills will determine just how ready Philadelphia is to defend its Super Bowl crown, because while last week’s blowout over the Raiders was promising, Las Vegas is a franchise mired in utter dysfunction. If NFL fans learn anything about the Eagles this weekend, it’ll be bad, given that the Commanders’ win came against New York, one of the only teams in worse position than they are. If this isn’t a blowout in favor of Philadelphia, the Eagles won’t stand a chance in the postseason.
A Super Bowl win earns several months of benefit, though, and despite slow stretches from Hurts, Brown, and Saquon Barkley ($10,600), the core of Philadelphia’s Lombardi-winning squad remains unchanged. Plus, a win and a Green Bay Packers victory over Chicago would put Philadelphia within half a game of the NFC’s second seed, potentially putting the Eagles on track to vault to the second seed and avoid a matchup against one of the NFC West juggernauts. With tightly-bunched playoff seeding as motivation, Philadelphia’s playoff run effectively begins on Saturday, and I think it will respond in kind.
