The Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets come into Thursday’s game in a familiar place. Atlanta is in the playoff mix, but outside of the upper echelon in the East. The Hornets aren’t quite in play-in territory, but they aren’t one of the truly abominable tanking teams. Some things never change.
Atlanta is a -5.5 road favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Hornets upset is priced at +180, and the game’s total is set at 237.5 points. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and the best pick for this Hawks-Hornets matchup.
Hawks vs. Hornets preview, prediction
Atlanta made major moves in the offseason, trading for Kristaps Porzingis and signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Adding those two alongside Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, and Dyson Daniels was a sound process. But best-laid plans — yada, yada. Young has been out for weeks, and Porzingis’ struggles with POTS are threatening not only his season but his career. Yet they soldier on, largely behind a strong season from Johnson. He’s arguably the breakout star of the season so far.
Johnson is putting up career highs across the board with 22.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. He looks every bit the part of a franchise talent and drastically improves Atlanta’s outlook. Alongside last year’s breakout star Dyson Daniels, the Hawks have a foundational piece on each end of the court.
Charlotte’s hierarchy is somehow less defined. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller were supposed to be the cornerstones of this team, but once again, they can’t stay on the floor. Their absences have left the rest of the roster in flux. The good news is that they nailed their most recent draft; Ryan Kalkbrenner is a rotation big from the start, Sion James is a strong perimeter piece, and Kon Knueppel has the look of a star player who nobody saw coming.
They’ll need better health and production to threaten the play-in tournament. Still, despite the rough stretch of injuries, things feel better in Charlotte.
Hawks vs. Hornets pick, best bet
The possession battle is key here. Atlanta ranks 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 26th on the other end. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks sixth in offensive rebounding rate while leading the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. If the Hornets can dominate the glass, it places significant pressure on the Hawks.
But there’s another aspect of the possession battle that plays a role. Charlotte is 22nd in turnover rate and 28th in forcing turnovers. Atlanta is 19th in turnover rate and fourth in forcing turnovers. Dyson Daniels is a one-man steal machine, flanked by Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to form one of the most formidable coverages in the league.
The value of those transition possessions will ultimately swing this game. Atlanta loves to get out and run, and it can put significant pressure on Charlotte’s giveaway-prone offense. Count on the Hawks to cover the spread as road favorites.
