Despite finishing 8-9 last season under Raheem Morris, there was optimism in Atlanta for this season. Michael Penix Jr. was set to stake his claim as the franchise quarterback while being surrounded by a bevy of young offensive weapons in Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. High draft capital was utilized on the defense and the Falcons looked poised to notch their first winning season since 2017.
But this is why they play the games. Penix was inconsistent and eventually shut down due to a major injury. London has missed time due to injury himself and remains out this week, and the 37-year-old Kirk Cousins has started four games this season and looked like he’s 73 years old. There are reasons why Atlanta is 4-9.
The passing game has produced the 10th-lowest EPA per dropback with only 12 touchdowns on the season. The 20 sacks taken, though, are the third-fewest, so there’s that. The run game hasn’t been bad, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns, but the EPA per carry is 13th-lowest.
On defense, the Falcons have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns. The EPA per carry is eighth-highest. The pass defense has allowed the 18th-highest EPA per dropback while allowing 21 touchdowns and a 64.2% completion percentage. The unit has racked up 10 interceptions and 43 sacks, the third-most in the NFL. The Falcons’ defense is sixth in pressure rate.
Injuries have also taken much of the air from the Buccaneers’ sails, but Baker Mayfield has been a stabilizing force and guided Tampa Bay to a 7-6 record, tied for the NFC South lead. That said, since the bye in Week 9, Tampa Bay is only 1-4.
On offense, the passing attack has posted the 19th-highest EPA per dropback with 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions. The run game has produced only 4.2 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns, but the EPA per carry is ninth-highest.
Defense is where Tampa Bay has truly shined. Predictably, the run defense has been stout, as has been the recent tradition. The EPA per carry is third-lowest, but the unit has allowed 4.2 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns, both are the highest among the 10 best defenses. The pass defense has allowed the 13th-highest EPA per dropback with 21 touchdowns and a completion percentage of 66.7. The unit has racked up 12 interceptions and 32 sacks. Tampa Bay has the ninth-lowest pressure rate.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Tampa Bay favored by 4.5 points at home with the total set at 44.5 points.
Weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (ATL @ TB)
Captain’s Picks
Bijan Robinson ($16,800 CP): Robinson could be the best fantasy running back but the Falcons often forget that he’s on the team for some reason. As a result, he’s gone under 20 FPTS five times this season but also has four games over 30 FPTS. Feed your best players. It’s not that difficult. What is difficult is running on Tampa Bay. In Week 1 between these two teams, Robinson carried 12 times for 24 yards, but he caught six of seven targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. The range of outcomes is wide for Robinson, but the potential ceiling is unmatched by most.
UTIL Plays
Rachaad White ($4,200): The Buccaneers have three really good backs, and some would argue that Sean Tucker is the most explosive. However, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White are garnering most of the snaps at the position. I think both of them can be productive as Tampa Bay will likely lean more towards the run in this one. White got two red-zone opportunities and two targets in the passing game last week, so there are multiple ways for him to produce fantasy goodies.
Kirk Cousins ($8,800): Cousins has been pretty gross this season but he has produced double-digit FPTS in two contests, and I think there’s a good chance he makes it three. It’s tough to run on Tampa Bay, so I think things tilt a little more towards the air for Atlanta in this one. It helps that Tampa Bay doesn’t possess a ferocious pass rush, so there’s a chance Cousins looks like the 37-year-old version and not the 73-year-old one.
Kyle Pitts ($6,400): Pitts is questionable, so make sure he’s playing first. Over the last two games, Pitts has garnered eight and 10 targets, catching seven and six for 82 and 90 yards. The tight end has been the security blanket and apple of Cousins’ eye recently. The only thing that could change that is if Pitts is unable to go, since he’s dealing with a knee issue. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Fades
Baker Mayfield ($10,000): In Week 1 between these teams, Mayfield went 17-of-32 for 167 yards and three touchdowns. That was a long time ago, and this Buccaneers team is much different, limping down the stretch. Since the Week 9 bye, Mayfield has gone over 20 FPTS only once in five games. I think the run game takes precedence for Tampa Bay in this one. I also think Mayfield is too expensive for the expected volume and production.
THE OUTCOME
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I think Cousins will show some competency in this one, making it a competitive game. I just don’t think Cousins has enough left in the tank to lead the team to a win in Tampa Bay.
Final Score: Buccaneers 26, Falcons 23
