The controversial influencer turned professional boxer, Jake Paul, is taking on former Heavyweight Champion and Olympic Gold Medalist Anthony Joshua on December 19. This is the fourth boxing event airing live on Netflix and the second time that Paul is competing on the platform. This event is occurring at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. Paul fought Mike Tyson on Netflix in November 2024. The last boxing event that aired on Netflix was Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford in September.
Here are my best bets for the upcoming boxing card on Netflix.
Anthony Joshua to Win In Rounds 5-8 (+550)
Paul has a 12-1 record with seven knockouts in his boxing career and beat Julio Cesar Chavez Jr in his previous bout. He has primarily competed between 185 and 200 pounds in boxing, and Paul has only fought once at heavyweight. Paul’s lone heavyweight bout was against Mike Tyson, for whom he weighed 227.2 pounds.
Joshua, 32, is one of the best heavyweight boxers of the last decade and has gone 28-4 in his career with 25 coming by knockout. Although he has had an excellent career, Joshua hasn’t fought in nearly 15 months and is coming off a knockout loss to Daniel Dubois. In this matchup, Joshua is five inches taller (6’6″ vs. 6’1″) and has a six-inch reach advantage (82″ vs. 76″). Joshua has a 245-pound weight limit in this contest, but still should have at least a 15-pound advantage over Paul.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Joshua is a massive -1200 favorite with Paul being the underdog at +700. Joshua is also -400 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. Since Joshua is such a big favorite, getting Joshua to win in Rounds 5-8 at +550 is a better value play. Joshua has won two of his last three fights in Rounds 5-8. Paul could use his speed to avoid Joshua’s powerful punches early, but the former champion should be able to finish him after the first few rounds.
Tyron Woodley Moneyline (+165)
Two former UFC Champions, Tyron Woodley and Anderson Silva, will face off on this card. Woodley was the UFC Welterweight Champion from 2016 to 2019, while Silva reigned as 185-pound king from 2006 to 2013. This fight will be a Light Heavyweight contest at 195 pounds.
Although both fighters have plenty of MMA experience, they haven’t had many boxing fights. Silva is 3-2 with two knockouts in boxing, with Woodley being 0-2. They share a common opponent, Jake Paul. Woodley lost to Paul via split decision in August 2021 but lost by knockout in their second bout in December 2021. Silva lost to Paul by unanimous decision in his last fight in October 2022.
Woodley is 43, seven years younger than Silva, and should not be as affected by the long layoff. In this contest, Silva is taller (6’2″ vs. 5’9″) with a larger standing reach (78″ vs. 74″). Woodley will need to move forward and be the aggressor in this fight to get the best of The Spider.
Dating back to his days at the UFC, Woodley has lost six consecutive contests between MMA and boxing. Woodley’s last combat sports victory came in 2018 against Darren Till. If Woodley wants to have a future in combat sports, a win against Silva is necessary. You can get Woodley at +165 in this contest as Silva is -210 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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