Matchweek 4 of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League league phase is here, and there are some extremely exciting matches on the docket. The marquee clash of the afternoon is between title-holders and current leaders Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, arguably the hottest team in the world.
The PSG-Bayern clash is so widely anticipated that a matchup between 15-time UCL champs Real Madrid and Premier League title-holders Liverpool will play second fiddle. Los Blancos will travel to Anfield for a 3 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) meeting.
Liverpool is a +140 favorite to win and +285 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Madrid is +170 on the Moneyline.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction, pick
Little has gone according to plan for Arne Slot’s Reds as of late, as they had a string of six losses in seven matches that they only broke with a 2-0 Premier League win over Aston Villa, but that lone win amidst the losing streak was a 5-1 Champions League demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt. Liverpool’s marquee offseason signings haven’t panned out yet, as Florian Wirtz has still yet to register a goal contribution in the Premier League and Alexander Isak has only notched an assist. Mohamed Salah is still the team’s best player, but at 33, he’s taken a slight step back from his incredible 2024-25, and Virgil van Dijk has shown some signs of his age as well. Slot’s men have scored the second-most goals in the Premier League and allowed the ninth-most, though they’ve been slightly more clinical on both ends in European competition.
Worse still, the Reds lost their most important player to injury in the loss to Galatasaray on September 30th, as goalkeeper Alisson left early with a hamstring injury. Georgi Mamardashvili has had a higher save percentage than the Brazilian in his stint as the first choice, but advanced stats underscore his struggles, and he’ll be between the sticks again tonight. Liverpool did okay against Eintracht without Alisson, with Isak and Jeremie Frimpong also leaving that game early, but Frankfurt has struggled in a comparatively weak Bundesliga, so that win doesn’t prove much, and winning without its trio of injured players will be challenging. The Reds sit just 10th in the league phase table and would have to go through the playoff round if the competition ended today, and they’ll have to play their best football in more than a month just to pick up a point.
Los Blancos have simply been the more impressive side. They sit fifth in the League Phase table and lead La Liga by five points after the first 11 matches of the season, with a loss to Atlético Madrid the only blemish on their resume. Real Madrid produced the far better chances in beating Barcelona in the first El Clasico of the season, and it thrashed Kairat Almaty, 5-0, in its first away match of the Champions League campaign. Kylian Mbappé has been a man on a mission, scoring 18 goals in 14 matches across all competitions, and since returning from an offseason shoulder injury, Jude Bellingham has chipped in four goal contributions in nine matches. Los Blancos have dealt with some injuries in the back — Antonio Rüdiger, Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, and Dean Huijsen have all missed time — and it’s hardly mattered, as they’ve allowed a league-low 10 goals in La Liga and just one in the first three Champions League matches. They’ve also scored at will in both competitions, including a 4-0 defeat of Valencia on Saturday in La Liga.
This match was supposed to be a homecoming for Trent Alexander-Arnold, who joined Real Madrid from Liverpool over the summer, but he’s fallen out of favor with Carlo Ancelotti and hasn’t played much, even when healthy. Such is Los Blancos’ depth that they’ve been able to thrive even while playing Federico Valverde at right back, where he’s made at least three tackles in three of his last four matches. Regardless of who Real Madrid has thrown out there, they’ve managed to find success, both at home and on the road. The Aston Villa win alone isn’t enough to convince me that the Reds have truly broken out of their slide, given Villa’s up-and-down form this season. Unless Liverpool can somehow summon its early-season form with Mamardashvili, not Alisson, between the sticks, Real Madrid should take all three points on the road.
