Week 9 could be the week of the breakout game for previously unheralded rookie running backs. New England Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson will likely get his first shot as a leading back this week with Rhamondre Stevenson on the shelf, and now, the Chicago Bears have ruled out their RB1, D’Andre Swift, for their matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Swift’s absence isn’t a surprise, given that his groin injury has held him out of practice all week.
With both Swift and Roschon Johnson out, the Bears only have two healthy running backs on their active roster: rookie Kyle Monangai and veteran Travis Homer, who hasn’t recorded a carry this season. The injuries mean that the seventh-round pick from Rutgers, who hasn’t yet appeared in more than 44% of the team’s snaps in any game, should be the primary rusher. He should have no problem shouldering a heavy workload, given that he was the featured back for a run-friendly Scarlet Knights offense and ultimately finished with the second-most career rushing yards in school history.
In the NFL, he hasn’t proven much yet, but a 13-carry, 81-yard, one-score performance in Week 6 against the New Orleans Saints is a fairly promising outing. To be fair, four of his carries in that game came on the final drive, after the final score had basically already been settled, but regardless, it was an impressive affair. He’s actually out-paced Swift in receiving success rate and largely matched him on the ground, and he’s gained more yards per attempt than fellow rookies Henderson, Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, and Quinshon Judkins, though in a smaller sample size. He should be helped by the fact that Chicago has been the league’s 11th-best run blocking team this season, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).
He has an extremely friendly matchup on the docket against Cincinnati, which has allowed 35.1 FPTS per game by DraftKings’ scoring to opposing running backs, 5.5 more than any other team and the worst mark since the Seattle Seahawks allowed 35.2 FPTS per game in 2002, when Monangai was an infant. The Bengals’ front seven has no redeeming features: they’ve allowed the most yards per game, the second-most touchdowns, the fourth-most yards per attempt, and the fourth-worst expected points added, and they rank second-to-last by PFF’s run defense grades. Cincinnati isn’t likely to fare any better with star defensive end Trey Hendrickson and linebacker Logan Wilson both doubtful. The only issue is that the Bengals have also allowed the second-most passing yards and passing touchdowns and rank second-to-last by EPA through the air and eighth-to-last by PFF coverage grades, and Caleb Williams is a pretty aggressive passer.
In general, I’m not incredibly high on rookie running backs, and Monangai hasn’t proven himself even to the extent that Henderson has, with just 48 career touches to his name. However, he couldn’t ask for a softer opponent against whom to make his first career start. He’s definitely worth a play.
