The year might well be 2018: the New England Patriots are 6-2 after a five-game winning streak and top the AFC East and are led by a quarterback with a short first and last name. Just like that 2018 team, this version of the Patriots also doesn’t have any bona fide stars in the running back room, as Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson comprise its backfield corps. The already-limited backfield just got weaker headed into the Week 9 home matchup against the Atlanta Falcons: Stevenson has been ruled out with a toe injury.
That should open up more opportunities for Henderson, who’s been the more impressive of the two this season. While Stevenson has managed just 3.4 yards per carry, the third-worst mark among 43 qualified ball-carriers, Henderson has been closer to the league average at 4.3 yards per carry, ahead of more highly-touted rookies in Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo, and Quinshon Judkins and also above possible future Hall of Famers Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. However, Stevenson has been more effective through the air; while each back has hauled in 16 passes, his have gone for 167 yards and Henderson’s only 99.
Neither running back is a star, though. By Pro Football Focus’ grading standards, Stevenson has been the sixth-worst of the 53 qualified running backs, and Henderson has been the second-worst, mostly due to his extremely lackluster blocking. Regardless, he showed some flashes against a very strong Cleveland Browns front seven in Week 8, turning his 10 carries into 75 yards, including 36 in the third quarter as New England scored a trio of touchdowns to turn a competitive affair into a blowout. He’s also coming off of a productive college career at Ohio State, where he formed an effective double-headed partnership with Judkins. The Patriots will have basically no choice but to trust him, anyway, since backup Antonio Gibson tore his ACL in Week 5.
I like his matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. In large part, that’s because they’re one of just two teams to have allowed four receiving touchdowns to the position, and while Henderson isn’t great through the air, Atlanta isn’t great against the run, either. It has allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt and ranks ninth-to-last in expected points added and fifth-to-last by PFF’s rushing grades. On the other hand, the Falcons have a solid secondary, ranking seventh in passing EPA and allowing the fourth-fewest adjusted yards per attempt. Drake Maye might be incentivized to take to the air, especially in cool, clear Foxborough conditions.
I’ll stop short of giving him must-start status, given the up-and-down historical track record of rookie running backs and his on-and-off production this season, but he’s definitely worthy of consideration in deeper leagues.
