The Blue Jackets host the Maple Leafs at Nationwide Arena on Wednesday, with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Columbus is a slight -115 Moneyline favorite at home, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll share my top preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s tilt between the Blue Jackets and Maple Leafs.
Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs prediction, preview
Columbus Blue Jackets preview
Columbus enters Wednesday’s tilt having won four of its last five games. Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov are tied for the most points on the team (9) and have each totaled at least four points during this five-game stretch. The goaltending has been above average, too, with both Elvis Merzlikins and Jet Greaves ranking inside the top 20 in both goals saved above expected and SV% above expected. The goaltending has been particularly impressive because the team ranks dead last in xGoals against per 60 but 20th in actual goals against per 60.
While the Blue Jackets rank inside the bottom 10 in penalties taken, the special teams play has been underwhelming. The club ranks 20th in power play percentage (PP%), 31st in penalty kill percentage (PK%), and is tied for the second-fewest power play goals. Luckily, Columbus has been a strong 5v5 team, ranking seventh in 5v5 xGoals%, fifth in 5v5 Corsi% and 12th in 5v5 goals per 60.
Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Maple Leafs have had a disappointing 5-4-1 start to the season, but they’ve won back-to-back games against the Sabres and Flames. Toronto is lacking production at all levels, with the bulk of points unsurprisingly coming from the first and second lines. William Nylander leads the team in points (15) and ranks third in the NHL in assists (12) through nine games. Both John Tavares and Matthew Knies are tied for second on the team in points (13), with Auston Matthews off to a slow start with just five goals and three assists in 10 games. Anthony Stolarz is 3-4-1 with a 3.27 GAA and .886 SV%, and he ranks 58th out of 68 goaltenders in goals saved above expected. His backup, Cayden Primeau, ranks 54th.
As a team, Toronto ranks inside the top 10 in goals scored per game but bottom 10 in goals allowed per game. After finishing as a top-10 power play team the past two seasons, the club is off to a slow start in 2025, converting just 14.8% of its power play opportunities, which ranks 27th in the NHL. Regression in both forms seems likely for Toronto soon, too. At 5v5, the team ranks sixth in goals per 60 despite ranking second-to-last in xGoals against per 60. On the other hand, they rank sixth in goals against per 60 but 12th in xGoals against per 60.
Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs pick, best bet
This is a tricky Eastern Conference matchup. The Maple Leafs are 0-2-0 on the road, and the Blue Jackets are 1-3-0 at home. Toronto’s goaltending has been very poor, while Columbus fields two very good goaltenders on a nightly basis. The underlying metrics suggest that negative regression is coming for Columbus and positive regression is coming for Toronto.
With both clubs struggling on special teams, 5v5 play is important, and I think the Blue Jackets have the edge. The Maple Leafs clearly have the edge in talent, but not in goaltending, and that exact flaw of theirs has been exposed multiple times already this season. On DraftKings Sportsbook, 61% of the money and 30% of the bets lie with the Blue Jackets on the Moneyline.
