The cross-state rivalry between Michigan and Michigan State is taking place this weekend during the Week 9 college football slate. These programs have faced off 117 times in their history with Michigan having won 74 of these matchups, along with five ties. The programs hold different outlooks on this season, but anything can happen in a rivalry game and there is still sure to be quite the atmosphere in East Lansing this weekend.
Looking at the odds, Michigan enters as a 14-point favorite and holds -575 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan State holds +425 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 47.5.
You can check out the full breakdown of this matchup and plenty of others on DK Network. But there are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side or game total. This article looks at my top player props for the Michigan vs. Michigan matchup.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Bets
Bryce Underwood to Record 28+ Rushing Yards (-122)
There was plenty of buzz surrounding Bryce Underwood’s arrival at Michigan. There have been some expected ups and downs for the true freshman, but he has used his legs at a more regular rate in recent weeks. Across his first two games he finished with five rushing attempts for -6 yards. In the five games since, he has posted rushing totals of 114, 61, 12, -4, and 25.
Michigan State has a poor defense that is allowing 32.7 points per game, which ranks 122nd among the 136 FBS programs. They are 128th in success rate allowed and 111th in rushing success rate. Their defensive line struggles to generate pressure with just 13 sacks on the season, ranking 133rd in power success rate and 99th in pass rush grade per PFF. This is especially noteworthy when handicapping rushing yardage for college quarterbacks given that sacks count for negative yardage.
In addition, Michigan running back Justice Haynes is a bit banged up and will be a game-time decision. The expectation seems to be that he will play, but this is worth monitoring and could result in a lighter work rate regardless. Underwood is averaging 28.9 rushing yards per game on 5.6 attempts per matchup. He has had at least five rush attempts in each of his last five games and has the athleticism and size to turn out a big play. Look for Underwood to take off whenever the defense allows and for the Michigan State defense to leave rushing lanes available for the star quarterback. Underwood still has not leaned on the legs at the rate that I expected, but he has shown an increased willingness to do so in recent weeks. Look for this trend to continue and for him to take off for 28+ yards on the ground with the defensive matchup and injury concerns in mind.
Aidan Chiles to Record 200+ Passing Yards (-105)
On the other side of the quarterback matchup, Aidan Chiles has had a respectable season for Michigan State. The Oregon State transfer has cut down on his turnovers in his second season with the Spartans and also has dual-threat ability. Looking at his production with his arm, Chiles has completed 65.1% of his pass attempts for 1,262 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He is averaging 180.3 passing yards per game overall, but has thrown for 200+ in four of the seven matchups. His 66 passing yards against UCLA and 85 passing yards against Nebraska have weighed down his average in a major way.
Michigan has a strong overall defense that is giving up just 17.0 points per game, which ranks 17th out of the 136 FBS teams. It is important to note that Michigan enters this rivalry matchup as 14-point favorites and the expectation will be that Michigan State will likley be playing from behind. This points toward a pass-friendly game script and Chiles’ stats will benefit as a result.
During last year’s matchup with Michigan, which had an equal or debatably more impressive defensive unit, Chiles completed 17 of his 23 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown. He has looked more polished as a passer this season overall which is encouraging. The 20-year-old is coming off a 243-yard passing performance in his previous game against Indiana and has gone over this total in four of his past six games. Even with Michigan having such a strong defense, they are allowing an average of 215.1 passing yards per game. Demond Williams Jr. had 209 passing yards against them in their previous game against Washington, Jayden Maiava had 265 yards in the air when they faced USC, and Dylan Raiola had 308 passing yards against Michigan.
It may not equate to an impact on the game in the way one would hope, but count on Chiles airing the ball out even if the game is seemingly out of reach. Count on the Michigan State starter to air it out frequently in this matchup and tally 200+ yards through the air for the fifth time this season.
